Iraq - surely not again!!

[s1chris]

Well, the situation in the Ukraine is a touchy one.

A military response sounds like a good idea on paper, but reality dictates that it offers a nightmare in execution. If NATO swoops in and kick's Putin's ass, then Russia's allies see this as justification to run to his aid. One of Russia's allies at the moment is China.

China has already been playing games in their neck of the woods, bullying Japan, Vietnam, the Phillipines, etc. and could certainly use this as an excuse to "secure" their region. And of course, Russia would have to "secure" all ethnic speaking Russians, like in Poland, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia and so on while "securing" her borders.

Russia also has allies in the middle east...see where this is going?

This would be nothing but an epic can of worms being opened...

I don't know about china now days. I think they have intergrated economically with the west (especially the UK) far to much to risk the effects on its economy. Jaguar/Landrover opened it's plant there the other week, it's a massive boost to it's local economy and from there try will export to the more local Asian countries the vehicle it produces. I think China would react differently with the smaller neighbouring countries such as Vietnam and it's current issues.

Don't get me wrong it will always throw it's weight around but I just don't think militarily with the west.

 

[pbehn]

I remember a very brief period in 1989 when UK politicians were discussing how best to spend the "peace dividend" we have been in conflict ever since, seems to be getting worse.

 

[Njaco]

Just a friendly word of caution: We don't allow political talk but we'll let this roll. If things become uncivil, thread will be closed. Just a reminder.

 

[michaelmaltby]

"....We don't allow political talk...."

How about religious talk, N .... this is the war between Shia and Sunni Islamic factions that the west needs recognize as such and stay well clear of. Imagine the ghastly 100 Years War the ripped Europe apart after the Protestant Reformation .... this Sunni thrust by ISIS out of Syria into Iraq .... this intervention by the Shia Tehran regime's revolutionary guards into Iraq to support a Shia government ... makes you realize what a delicate religious cocktail Saddam Hussein was able to hold together .. with fear.

These ISIS shock troops, now equipped with captured US vehicles and weapons and enriched by $500M looted from the Mosul Bank.. are unstoppable, IMHO, and they are animals.

All very sad but we must stay clear. The blood and treasure invested by the US is lost - sunk funds - and is no good reason for further involvement .... or guilt. This Shia-Sunni war is as inevitable as WW1 was.

 

[GrauGeist]

And this is the reason why the war in Iraq was such a nightmare. The actual war was won once the Iraqi military surrendered and Saddam fled. What happened after that, was pure insurgency.

This new upheaval should, in my opinion, be addressed by the member nations of the Arab League and Western nations stay far far away from this mess.

 

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

Having spent a year of my life in that **** hole, this is a very touchy subject for me.

Can't say I did not see it coming a mile away...

 

[kettbo]

seems Pennsylvania Avenue, DoD, DoS, CIA et al didn't see it coming! I spent part of '03 and most of '04 there, the last 4 months in Western Mosul. It is the Wild West there, with AKs! I had hoped that at some time later in my life that I could go back, see how things have progressed...

 

[stona]

Having the Arab world tearing itself apart with a split along ancient religious divides is not an altogether bad thing for the Western world. When a man is ripping his neighbour's throat out he is less able to have a go at you.
Just saying
Steve

 

[vikingBerserker]

How could nobody have seen this coming.

 

[Torch]

That's my thoughts,how can this be a surprise??????????

 

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

That's my thoughts,how can this be a surprise??????????

It wasn't except to the morons in the White House...

When I was there in 04, we could barely keep the peace.

Screw this, just thinking about it pisses me off. I'm off to make Ćevapčići for our get together with friends tonight.

 

[YakFlyer]

Seems to me that Hussain did a better job of controlling these wild "muslim" subgroups than what the current Iraqi government has achieved. Perhaps they should have been left alone in the first place instead of wasting hundreds of thousands of lives, totally wrecking an entire country?
It is all just a tad messy if you ask me. If the Vatican didn't go into India 500 years ago to eradicate Islam none of this hatred towards Christianity would exist now. Hope that doesn't offend anyone, just my opinion.

yakflyer

 

[bobbysocks]

my surprise is how long it took the militants to tumble to the idea. i said years ago the best stragegy for al-qaeda was to cease attacks and quiet down...take the time to rebuild, rearm, recruit, etc. at a certain point the US will think all is well in iraq or will say enough is enough and pack up and leave. once we bail out of somewhere we seldom go back....as that last plane leaves with US troops....they can make their move pretty much unencumbered. ISIS and AQ had a falling out in syria...so there is a huge power play in the ME going on right now. it isnt just for territory but funding. the group that comes out on top will get the lions share of "contributions" from various anti-us organizations...and then the smaller splinter groups will shift their allegiance to that faction and expand their network and scope of operations. its going to get a lot more interesting ( scary )....

 

[pbehn]

The west should just stop picking a side to help, this isnt Hollywood, there are no "good guys". I saw convoys of US arms going to Iraq in 1988 only to be turned against the US lead coalition in 1990. The Soviets and US + Europe have armed both (all) sides for over 30 years with no result....just keep out.

 

[parsifal]

ISIS is a problem. murderous lot. But the drop kick PM of iraq has upset so many of his countrymen, that the hard core are now mixed up with the more moderate types. We need to stay clear of this. Thats all ive got to say

 

[GrauGeist]

The main problem with Iraq, is actually an ancient one.

That region, for most of it's existance, has been under rule by one empire or another. After the fall of the Ottoman Empire, it fell under commonwealth jurisdiction and eventually made an independant state. The problem with this, is that the three regions within Iraq proper have always been held together by strict rule.

Most recently, Saddam Hussein fullfilled that role with his absolute policy of "peace or else"...many times, they got "or else" anyway. Once the country was handed a chance at a democratic government, the Iraqi people were happy BUT the power-hungry idiots came out of the woodwork.

They reared their stupid heads once the U.S. and coalition forces defeated Hussein's army and they used a thinly-veiled religious "cause" to stir up trouble. The problem is, the majority of the insurgents were imported (Jordan, Chechnya, Syria, Saudi Arabia, etc etc) from other areas. And the other problem is, that these power grabbers were leading these young insurgents into believing that they were tossing away their lives in the name of a jihad. If it were truly a religious backed effort, they wouldn't be blowing up sacred holy sites (such as the Golden Mosque - one of Islam's top 5 holiest sites)...destroying a holy site is an offense to Islam, even in the event of Jihad.

So it's pretty obvious that this is a power struggle, and for the kids...I mean "freedom fighters", it's a great opportunity to run around slaughtering people and post the videos on youtube...

 

[nuuumannn]

The Coalition shouldn't have gone into Iraq in 2003 in the first place. If it hadn't none of this would be happening. Hussein and his country were crippled by sanctions; they had no real military capability to speak of. With him and his supporters out of the way, all hell has broken loose. Why was the possibility of this happening ignored in 2003?

The West has not learned any lessons from history. Sometimes hard line rule is required in a region to maintain local stability and the balance of power. If Assad and his support base in Syria were taken out, the same thing will happen there.

 

[Thorlifter]

Funny how Saudi has told both Iran and the US to stay out of this. Then I learned today that ISIS is Sunni based and primarily so is Saudi so that explains that. Iran is mostly Shiite, at least that's how it was explained to me. It makes me a little extra nervous as I am currently in Jubail, Saudi Arabia, working on one of the largest chemical complexes in the world.

Nuuumannn, hard line rule is one thing. Massacring and torturing people is quite another.

 

[GrauGeist]

Well, that's a touchy subject, regarding Hussein.

He was a ruthless bastard and had no problem about wiping out entire villages. Especially Khurds. We saw that same practice again in Kuwait City after his forces rolled through and took over Kuwait. He was a serious problem, both to the local region and to his own people.

However...I am not sure how he could have been replaced, in regards to maintaining "order" in that country.
This is much along the lines of Afghanistan before the communists destabilized that country. It was ruled by a king, yet very western, even more so than both Iran under the Shah and Turkey during the same time period. All the local warlords recognized his authority and kept a lid on things, otherwise the King would come down on them, hard. Once the communists took control and deposed the King, the local warlords in that country went batsh!t crazy...then came the Soviets and we all know the rest.

Same goes for Libya...Ghaddafi had everyone pretty much behaving and then someone decided they were going to have a democracy. Well, they snuffed Ghaddafi, burnt alot of things, did some serious killing and the entire country falls into a cesspool of stupid. That sure worked out well, didn't it?

So herein lies the problem: how do we "fix" a situation like that? We can't. I know that wiping out entire villages, hanging annoying people and similar atrocities are not acceptable. If these leaders would tone down the human-rights violations, then perhaps let the people be ruled they way they have been for centuries. Westerners should not try and fix things they don't understand. There are ancient places in this world where we our ideology simply doesn't belong. The Orient is one example, the middle-east is another.

 

[Thorlifter]

Well, that's a touchy subject, regarding Hussein.

He was a ruthless bastard and had no problem about wiping out entire villages. Especially Khurds. We saw that same practice again in Kuwait City after his forces rolled through and took over Kuwait. He was a serious problem, both to the local region and to his own people.

However...I am not sure how he could have been replaced, in regards to maintaining "order" in that country.
This is much along the lines of Afghanistan before the communists destabilized that country. It was ruled by a king, yet very western, even more so than both Iran under the Shah and Turkey during the same time period. All the local warlords recognized his authority and kept a lid on things, otherwise the King would come down on them, hard. Once the communists took control and deposed the King, the local warlords in that country went batsh!t crazy...then came the Soviets and we all know the rest.

Same goes for Libya...Ghaddafi had everyone pretty much behaving and then someone decided they were going to have a democracy. Well, they snuffed Ghaddafi, burnt alot of things, did some serious killing and the entire country falls into a cesspool of stupid. That sure worked out well, didn't it?

So herein lies the problem: how do we "fix" a situation like that? We can't. I know that wiping out entire villages, hanging annoying people and similar atrocities are not acceptable. If these leaders would tone down the human-rights violations, then perhaps let the people be ruled they way they have been for centuries. Westerners should not try and fix things they don't understand. There are ancient places in this world where we our ideology simply doesn't belong. The Orient is one example, the middle-east is another.

100% completely agree!