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Got this off some BB somewhere, sometime.
1939:
Allied and Neutral ship tonnage sunk by German and Italian submarines (#ships, GRT)
Sep39 48/178,621
Oct39 33/156,156
Nov39 27/72,721
Dec39 39/101,823
Tot39 147 (36.75/month)/509,321 (127,330.25/month)
British merchant ship construction capacity from 1939-1941 did not exceed 1.2 million GRT per year.
US merchant ship construction in 1939 was 0.242 million GRT.
At that, these were much better than 1939 (average of 19.5 monthly), 1940 (average of 18.75 monthly) and 1941 (average of 47.5 monthly). OTOH, the 'bang for their buck' was probably highest in 1940, which was also arguably the U-Boats most 'successful' year in terms of ships sunk per patrol and U-Boats lost per ship sunk (see my previous reply).
That's a bit difficult to imagine. First, it would require bypassing the Philippines which is basically asking for trouble: the Americans would reinforce the islands and hold the ability to cut off the Japanese supplies.What are your thoughts about Britain being able to fight Germany if we had stayed completely neutral and Japan attacked only Britain (and de facto Netherlands in Borneo, etc)?
I am inclined to believe that Britain a.) could not have increased shipping tonnage at expense of anti-sub, or b.) could not have sustained Britain in context of fuel and food through 1943 - absent some amazingly efficient breakthroughs in detection and sub sinking technologies.
I don't know how important the 50 Lend Lease destroyers were to Britain, but I do know how important our ship building and steady stream of supplies were to marginally overcome the Atlantic threat in 1943 - after 18 months of our own dedication. I still do not know how Britain would have kept supply chain going from Canada or Africa/Middle East
What are your thoughts about Britain being able to fight Germany if we had stayed completely neutral and Japan attacked only Britain (and de facto Netherlands in Borneo, etc)?
What was the combat value of those bombers for Coastal Command back in 1942?
Why would India have to be given up? Japan didn't have the logistics to invade and occupy India. As long as they were fighting in the mountains and forests of Burma they did allright but India is too much for the Japs.
Kris
Al - this is best summary I have seen so far and adds some facts to my own speculation.
I am inclined to believe that Britain a.) could not have increased shipping tonnage at expense of anti-sub, or b.) could not have sustained Britain in context of fuel and food through 1943 - absent some amazingly efficient breakthroughs in detection and sub sinking technologies.
I don't know how important the 50 Lend Lease destroyers were to Britain, but I do know how important our ship building and steady stream of supplies were to marginally overcome the Atlantic threat in 1943 - after 18 months of our own dedication. I still do not know how Britain would have kept supply chain going from Canada or Africa/Middle East
What are your thoughts about Britain being able to fight Germany if we had stayed completely neutral and Japan attacked only Britain (and de facto Netherlands in Borneo, etc)?
....
Could Great Britain allocate Royal Navy units in distant areas such as the Caribbean to ensure safety of tankers that would transport oil all the way to Great Britain without affecting its presence in the Mediterranean and North Atlantic?
Here too the answer should be a "no". Following the loss of Singapore and Burma, and the ugly battering they had to swallow during the one and only major Japanese naval operation in the Indian Ocean, and the timid and irresolute response in such areas, oil supply for England was severely threatened.
Since the USA is neutral, and in view of their need for oil to maintain the war machine on the move, Great Britain must look for oil in areas far from Japanese threat...possibly the Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico sectors.
As it did occur, it was the U.S. Navy who embarked on the task of fighting the U-boat menace in the Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean; losses of tankers to German submarines were very high in the beginning. The U.S. Navy was the one who defended the trench in those critical sectors.
AgreedCould Great Britain have produced something like ~2,700 Liberty Ships without directly affecting the production of other war vessels, especially destroyers, corvettes, and sloops which were essential to combat U-boats?
The answer should be a "no".
This bit I disagree with. The prodiction of escort vessels which clearly was the key in the Atlantic would have been sufficient. By taking the steps mentioned in my earlier posting I believe it would have helped.Without the entrance of the U.S. into the war in Europe, then the Great Britain must produce war vessels to replace those already lost in combat -which as i presented here were just too many prior to the end of 1941-, plus merchant shipping tonnage to ensure supply lines remain open or at least secured in such level to permit the flow of essential materials and goods to sustain the level in the fight.
Totally agree but we didn't need to as long as we held the MedCould Great Britain allocate Royal Navy units in distant areas such as the Caribbean to ensure safety of tankers that would transport oil all the way to Great Britain without affecting its presence in the Mediterranean and North Atlantic?
Here too the answer should be a "no".
As it did occur, it was the U.S. Navy who embarked on the task of fighting the U-boat menace in the Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean; losses of tankers to German submarines were very high in the beginning. The U.S. Navy was the one who defended the trench in those critical sectors.
I would suppose that the US maintained a semi-belligerent status with the Germans. Even if war was not declared, their was no love or sympathy for Berlin.
I would say the US maintains a defensive zone in the Atlantic out to the middle with a "no warning" given to any U-Boat found. The Germans would also flatly be warned not to send U-Boats into the Carrib or Gulf.
This would aid the RN somewhat. Enough for the UK to survive? Yes. To buildup the armies and prepare for an invasion on the scale of Overlord and Dragoon? No!