Since this is an international forum,any concern about whats going on in the Ukraine?

[GrauGeist]

Well, the situation in the Crimea is a complex one. Allowing Putin to succeed in taking the Crimea (for whatever the current excuse is...it keeps changing) is just a "foot in the door".

The Ukraine is actually the birthplace of Russia. Most of the greatest battles fought in Russia's history happened in that region. The Russian Orthodox church has it's roots in the region and so on and so on.

There's already Russian troops on Ukraine soil, not just the Crimea.

With Putin's sentiments that the breakup of the Soviet Union being one ofnthe greatest tragedies in history, he is going to test the waters. If he is successful in nibbling away at the Ukraine's soverign territory like he is, then what's to stop him from going after any other region that has "Russian speaking" populations that need his "help", as was the case with the Crimea. Bear in mind that the demonstrations and unrest was in Kiev, not the Crimea. Putin said he was getting involved because of the demonstrations and unrest, but that was in Kiev and the mainland...it had nothing to do with the Crimea, and yet there they are...

So how about the other Russian speaking populations, like in Belarus, Rumania, Lithuania and Poland? Will they be next?

Looks a little like the late 1930's and "Lebensraum", doesn't it?

 

[Torch]

Well my thought is with the history of that region,I know Poland etc. must be watching with interest on how the west handles the situation. Right now I'm sure they are squirming a bit.

 

[razor1uk]

Europe is all secretly squirmingly, like the silent farted only to realise that they feel slightly damper and warmer than they should if it were just gas.

The Ghost of Stalin allegedly seems to be rising with a skinhead, combined star and hakkenkruez tattoos, with a revisionised history (unfortunately many other countries espouse their own alt-histories), amnesia of the past in rose gilded delusions of grandeur and sexual schitzophrenia (not with their mother.. less Freud, more Pavlov)
This alleged kid (the 'mob' of the countries mindset) is the product of a seriously tormented upbringing and has many hidden issues, with calmer individuals that many remain silent to hide from the zealots the violent.

 

[parsifal]

ukrainian independance in my opinion is similar to the Scottish independance movement. It makes no sense from an economic perspective, for either side, but politically and emotively independance is important. The ukraine has proven to be an economic basket case with deep seated corruption problems within the regime. The Ukraininan state has proven too communally immature to be able to make a go of democracy.

im not excusing what the Russians are doing in any way, and there is no comparison in some respects with the UK and Eastern Europe. British society to me is much more politically mature, and might handle separation better.

 

[bobbysocks]

"Understanding U.S. values and psychology are not his strong suits."

i dont believe that statement is entirely accurate. he may not know what the average us citizen may want for breakfast but he knows enough about us policy and the values to make informed decisions in cases like this. the only nullifier would be if he lets his ego get into the way of his years of experience and training...i dont think that is the case but who knows and history bears him out. in 08 russia invaded georgia and what happened? putin and russia paid dearly for this....not. we will in all likelihood react in the same manner....and the result will probably be the same. i dont believe occupation is the goal but the bargaining chip. putin may pull out ( as opposed to being forced out as in georgia ) but he will have gained whatever strategic goal(s) he had in mind.

and so we will send kissinger in to negotiate....the last big conflict he negotiated was the end of the vietman war........

What Russia?s invasion of Georgia means for Crimea

 

[vikingBerserker]

I think in the long term, Ukraine will join NATO and Europe will wean itself from relying on Russia for energy. IMHO Putin is shooting himself in the foot.

Certainly has the makings of another Cold War.

 

[razor1uk]

Well In the last day or two, either pro-russian 'defence' groups or russian forces have tussled with trapped Ukrainian military persons in Crimea, killing at least one, capturing another and perhaps wounding another still; captured or attemted to infiltrate and sieze Ukrainian military bases not already held by the Vladamirist forces.

Ukrainian provisional government has issued orders for armed defence upon the death of one of its own, which initially Moscow claimed as a Russians death; could they have been an ethnic russian who was pro-Ukraine, its anyones guess?

The Vladimirists seen to love the attention they are getting in the media still, seems hopefully thats all they crave more than the East of the rest of Ukraine.

Other countries groupings are formulating further restrictions upon them that apparently will be very tough and leave Vladimirland 'isolated' if you ignore the rest of world apart from the G7 EU.
That is as it seems Russia is out of all the 'G' clubs now.

Perhaps well stop selling their expensive vodka and stop trading them Lucky Strike and B&H, while hoping they don't switch the oil and gas off instantly; if they give us enough time to find and arrange other gas oil suppliers first...

EU member states should maybe mentally prepare for possible worst case of having to perhaps mobilise something apart from some of their government members rhetoric.

The UK has suspended all military and planned military/defence manouvers with Russians - apparently we have stopped supplying them with cloth material for making uniforms -if that's all we aid them with, then that sounds very 'Swiss' like indeed for the UK usual involvement.

 

[GrauGeist]

There has been reports of Russian military trying to board and seize Ukranian Navy vessels now...

When the Ukranian Naval vessels tried to leave port, Russian warships blocked them.

Wonder how that would work out if a Turkish ship or one from another country came to escort the Ukranian ships out of port?

 

[razor1uk]

Apparently, us or the US might try to send some naval vessels into the Black Sea, though they could get blockaided at the Hellspont..
This tune is semi peaceful, with his abstact lyrical references relative to the situation.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=spH8llerrM4

 

[GrauGeist]

Apparently, us or the US might try to send some naval vessels into the Black Sea, though they could get blockaided at the Hellspont..

The 6th Fleet is in the region as it stands. Plenty of muscle if it comes down to a hitting match, the 6th Fleet is based out of Naples.

There were two U.S. Naval vessels in the Black Sea during the Sochi games, laying off the coast helping with security. One of the ships had to lay over in Turkey due to a damaged prop (USS Taylor) and is still there undertaking repairs.

Apparently, Turkey has given permission for U.S. warships to pass the Bosphorus, though not not a carrier as some "sources" claim. First off, bringing a carrier into the Black Sea would hamper it's ability to avoid attack and would be provocative by it's presence alone. In the unlikely event a shooting match breaks out, ground-based aircraft will be the best assets in this situation.

I would think that a local (Rumania, Turkey, Bulgaria) presence to deter Russian aggression against Ukranian naval assets would be better than having a U.S. or Royal Navy ship escort the Ukrainian ships out of port. That would be more of a local show of support than "western meddling" as they're calling it.

 

[razor1uk]

Well if the Russ keep taunting, goading and trying to push the so far extremely steadfast (and more and more seemingly innocently non-beligerent) Ukrainians much further, then a Russian mil' person could die and give Vladamirists their reason and goal for the whole pantomime - the rest of the World better be ready for a new pre-WW2 repeat of Hitlers ego, false promises treaty breakages prior to European War.

 

[GrauGeist]

there's already been shots exchanged, a few injured and at least one killed.

Also heard that Ukranian sailors have tossed several grenades at Russians trying to seize the bottled-up Ukrainian ships.

This whole mess is one bigass powder-keg with too many fuses dangling...

 

[razor1uk]

Bloomberg News just announced moments ago, Ukraine to remove UKR Troops from Crimea, and to seek compensation for Russian seized assets within the Crimea, and to ask for it to become demilitarised outside of the military bases.

Yes, unfortunatly a UKR Senior Warrent Officer was killed, and a Commander was wounded and taken to hospital/captured

 

[Shinpachi]

Chaos is always the best chance for its aggressive neighbors to put influence militarily and politically.

In August 1945 when Japan was in chaos losing the war, Soviet Union suddenly occupied Japanese northern territory of Kuril Islands.
However, it was unable to occupy Japanese mainland because US troops + other allied troops were advancing there.

Seeing the Ukraine situation from the far-east, Ukraine has no time to shout or cry but accept NATO as soon as possible.

 

[parsifal]

They accepted NATO gurantees in 1992. They have proven to be hollow promises

 

[Shinpachi]

Even if a country has guts enough to fight, it does not necessarily mean victory.
No guts? No future.

 

[razor1uk]

If the guts have become emptied before/during confrontation, then they cannot be emptied again. ..until that is, victory feeds them, since death will leave them forever empty.
..or..
A wounded animal that is trapped is more likely to be greater in its ferociousness.

Of course how what the metaphorical animal is relation to the other is very important in this concept; a trapped wounded and angry kitten against a one eyed old badger, or a bottle of beer vs. an hypothermic arthritic hand with only a short handled opener..
The Telegraph, Ukraine-Live

 

[Rogi]

It depends what side you take, I can see merits from both views, technicly originally Protestors didn't agree with the Presidents view to take a deal with Russia and this is what it all started, these weren't peaceful protests from either side, so who can you blame? Who fired first we will never know and what occurred after is tragic, not only for Ukraine as a country, but for the world.

If the "world" went on Ukraine's side there isn't really anything Russia could do, but then again now a days everyone is so economically tied together that doing one thing to hurt someone would impact a friend or foe down the line.

Whoever you agree with, either way it isn't a good situation and only a small step in a wrong direction can turn sour I just hope that there is a peaceful situation on all sides.

 

[vikingBerserker]

I've been reading up on it and it seems the Ukraine is better off without them, they (Crimea) appear to be a black hole in needing money.

 

[parsifal]

Dont be fooled by that. Holding the Crimea gives two definite advantages for the Russians, firstly the finest naval base and attendant shipyards in the region. That IS the reason they are risking so much to capture it. Controlling Sevastopol will solve many problems that they have regarding Turkish (and other nations) intransigence (For example, in 1997 I think, when they were towing one of their Kiev class carriers to china, the Turks messed about and did not allow the ship to pass through the Bosphorus, for ages. If an effective Russian fleet had been stationed in the Black Sea, this might not have happened.....there was a fleet there, but it was basically immobilised because it had no dockyard support).

The second reason why they are so strongly going after it is because of the potential oil reserves in the Crimea and off the Black Sea Coat. The more coast you control, the more claim to ocean oil can be made.

Russians are interested in eastern ukraine for similar reasons. Its the regions greatest producer of iron and coal and I suspect they want it back. Ethnically its about 50/50 Russian/Ukrainian and politically about 60/40 pro russian over the west leaning Ukrainians