Since this is an international forum,any concern about whats going on in the Ukraine?

[bobbysocks]

a warm water port is extremely important and something they lost with the break up. putin is on record as saying the worse thing that happened to russia was the break up.....so as the grand pubba do you think he might be trying to fix that? some in the ukraine are now saying they did the west ( and the world a favor ) by getting rid of their nukes but that put them in a vunerable position and the west is giving them up now. they say if they still had them they would not have been invaded.

 

[vikingBerserker]

That's a very interesting thought. They also sold their Carrier to China.

At work we received a notice or no shipments to Russia without special approval

 

[GrauGeist]

Then again, if the Ukraine kept their nuclear arsenal, Putin could make the excuse to invade the Ukraine because of the nukes.

And even if Putin keeps the Crimea and plans to beef up his Black Sea fleet, he would still have to get his warships past Turkey.

Turkey has also made a statement warning Putin about the safety of the Tartars in Crimea following the beating-murder of a Tartar leader there, that there will be an immediate and severe response if any more come to harm.

 

[pbehn]

I am in Germany at the moment. If Europe had a piece of military equipmet in place of every pundit expousing his/her opinion across the continent then Putin wouldn't do anything. Sadly they will talk the glass eye to sleep while Putin does as he likes.

 

[bobbysocks]

this is getting more stlicky by the day. 3 more bordering provences of the ukraine have had upheavals with pro-soviet demonstrators taking government buildings in some cases and proclaiming the establishment of "republics"...and calling for a referendium on joining russia take place by may 11...2 weeks prior to the presidential elections. more of these masked and well armed "local militias" are showing up in these areas. putin has started moves to russian financial self-reliance.....they will now pay for everything in rubles...not dollars, the banks have been instructed to make a "russian" nationwide electronis payment system...to oust visa, mastercard, etc and keep everything inhouse...he has told russian business to de-list from the dow and nasdaq and is having a rating system designed for russian debt and securities...which has institutions like S&P, moodys, and fitches threatening to downgrade the russian economy ( dont think putin is scared ). he is disconnecting from the rest of the world moneywise while blaming the west for medling in the ukraines affairs ( dang it sounds like the good old soviets of days gone by ). will be interesting to see IF the may 25th elections are disrupted or he makes a big move before then...i am guessing so. it isnt in his interest to see if those border provences come out in mass and possibly vote for a pro west leader.....

 

[GrauGeist]

They are now re-examining the TU-154 crash of 2010 that killed Polish President Lech Kaczynski, his wife and most of Poland's ministers.

He was very critical of Putin and even warned that unless countries took a hard stance against Putin (in reference to Russia's actions aganst Georgia), Putin's agression "would extend to Ukraine, the Baltics, and possibly Poland as well."

One of many critics of the crash investigation, is Physicist Kazimierz Nowaczyk. He explains:

On April 10, 2010 at 10:41 a.m. Polish Air Force Flight 101 crashed several hundred meters short of the Smolensk runway in dense fog. Within hours the Russian government issued a statement citing the incident on pilot error. Russia's final report on the incident blamed the late President Kaczyński and his "inebriated" air force commander-in-chief for using "psychological pressure" to force the Polish pilots to land in a low-visibility environment.

The plane's black boxes, laptops, sensitive documents, mobile phones, address books, telephone numbers, correspondence, and the top-secret military, NATO and diplomatic codes on board were salvaged from crash site immediately by the Kremlin's operatives in what was a "coup for Russia's intelligence service" according to retired CIA analyst Gene Poteat. What Nowaczyk calls "years worth of work for security services" was completed in a single day by Russia's OMON Special Purpose Police, which were immediately deployed to the site.

"From our point of view this report was full of mistakes," Nowaczyk explains, citing various inconsistencies and contradictions in the official narrative. A key issue raised by Nowaczyk's committee and the many online forums dedicated to the crash is that the amount of debris found at the site—an estimated 60,000 aircraft fragments—would be impossible in the case of a simple plane crash. He cites the 1988 Lockerbie bombing and the 1996 TWA 800 flight out of New York, both of which exploded in the air but had only 11,000 aircraft fragments and 3,168 fragments respectively. Both planes were reconstructed to 95 percent completion. Nowaczyk believes that an explosion caused the fragmentation of the Polish president's plane. In the official report the plane's black boxes indicate that the aircraft's electricity was cut two to three seconds before the crash, which Nowaczyk believes also was caused by that explosion.

Makes a person wonder...

 

[stona]

I've said it before and I'll say it again. There is no real hard, that is military, option for NATO.
No two nuclear armed belligerents have ever directly fought each other and they are not about to start doing it now over some Ukrainian territory no matter how heated the rhetoric from Washington and elsewhere might get. Does anyone seriously believe that the Korean 'Police Action' would have taken place if China had a nuclear capability at that time ?
Good grief, even Pakistan and India have stopped anything above border skirmishes, usually involving irregular forces, since they both acquired a nuclear capability !
Russia got what it wanted in the Crimea and will probably succeed in other Ukrainian territory too. See my post #7
Cheers
Steve

 

[fastmongrel]

Its ironic in 1992 when the Ukraine voted for independence there was a 92% vote in favour of Ukraine. Even in the most Russian part Crimea it was 65% in favour of independence and 80% in the areas now boiling over. The people now screaming for papa Vladimir to rescue them from the evil west might come to regret throwing independence away so quickly.

The best thing Europe can do now is rescue the Ukraine and build it up to be a functioning democracy with a thriving economy,

 

[michaelmaltby]

"....The best thing Europe can do now is rescue the Ukraine and build it up to be a functioning democracy with a thriving economy....."

Details to follow ... hard details to follow ... I'm hoping, , but Europe has shot itself in the foot on energy policy .... as has Ukraine .... so I fear the blind leading the blind.

Rather, I think Europe is going to learn once more that nasty, shady, bullying plays go on under Europe's collective nose ... Europe's consciousness ... and Europe sucks it up ... and carries on.

MM
Proud Canadian

 

[stona]

The reasonable threat comes from NATO. Everything else, sanctions, embargos etc are ineffective and largely rhetoric, whether from the EU or Washington. Putin can and will ignore it.

In 2008 the Ukraine was a NATO membership candidate, this option was finally ditched in 2010 by the Ukraine itself which decided to remain 'non-aligned'. Last time I looked Canada was a full member of NATO. There were Canadian forces involved in operations in Libya, any plans to send some to sort out Putin?

'Nasty, shady, bullying plays' go on all over the world under the noses of every major power (or power bloc), often at their behest. Intervention, if it occurs, is always in the interest of the powerful, never the 'poor oppressed people of.....fill in as appropriate'.

Cheers

Steve

 

[pbehn]

I have a bad feeling about all this. Europe is collectively impotent and foolish, if indeed "Europe" exists at all except of a map.

 

[michaelmaltby]

".... any plans to send some to sort out Putin?..."

I assume you mean energy, Stona, since that is the root of the problem.

 

[parsifal]

I think the ukraine is a most unhappy place at the moment. It declared independance in 1992 with great hopes of a better future, and a historic and intense dislike of the Russians. Ethnically however it was a deeply divided country, with sharp and serious ethnic divisions. Crimea was never part of the Ukraine, having been colonised with ethnic Russians by Peter the Great, and a smattering of indigenous Tartars. Crimean desire to leeave the Ukraine is genuine.

What has soured Ukrainian politics is a mix of really poor internal politics and corruption, a state of neglect by their new western frinds,, and Russia enerrgy policy toward them. Ukrainans until independance had enjoyed cheap energy like the rest of the Union. After independance the Russians began charging full market price, and this really upset the Ukrainains. they wanted independance, and cheap energy....the best of both worlds, and attempted to blackmail the Russians by blockading the pipeline and basically stealing gas. The Russians, and Germany built alternative pipelines around the Ukraine, so the Ukrainians were forced to back down

Russians then started to get nasty. This is not a straight up fight between the goodies and the baddies. Both are mostly baddies, with Eupe and the US being acquiescent on most issues. The Russians are now openly fomenting unrest in the eastern part of the country, where ethinc Russians make up about 40% of the population, and are now using energy as a wepon. they are now charging the Ukrainians about double the price of the rest of Euope for energy, and many Ukrainans are really worried about what happens in winter for heating. Russians are offering cheap energy for any region wanting to join them. Very nasty politics.

 

[stona]

No, I mean the means to sort out Putin. Canada can do no more about it than the US or EU. The rest of the world is impotent. Even China has abstained in UN voting on resolutions against the Russian Federation leaving Putin politically isolated. The trouble is he doesn't care and he will call everyone's bluff.
This is not a 'European' problem, it wasn't just the European Union that backed Ukrainian independence back in 1991/2. The Western world as a whole had its own agenda in its decision to support the Ukraine in this move and don't be naïve enough to believe that it was some airy fairy democratic principles that drove agenda. The pigeons are now coming home to roost.

The only thing that will give the Russians cause to pause is a credible military threat and that is not going to materialise as none of the western powers who comprise NATO have the stomach for it. NATO ended up committing nearly 1,000 aircraft against Serbia, a country of 10 million people covering barely 40,000 square miles. Even the Pentagon was taken aback when Clark asked for the aircraft carrier Enterprise to join Eisenhower. It took nearly 80 days to convince the Serbs to give up and at no point did the air assault seriously effect Serb ground operations, ethnic cleansing proceeded as planned.
A coalition of the world's most powerful air forces had bombed and shot up the hapless armed forces of a helpless nation which had no real means to defend itself. Even so it took twice as long to force Milosevic to give up than to force Saddam Hussein to do the same.

It is important to learn from history and acknowledge one's own limitations if that is the lesson it holds. Nobody can seriously believe that there is any will to take on the Russians by air let alone with boots on the ground.

Cheers

Steve

 

[michaelmaltby]

Any nation needs to address its energy needs realistically. Ukraine hasn't ... and it's beholden to a bully.

The eastern part of the country will go the way Crimea has gone and Putin will have won. Any country which has its energy supplies in Putin's hands would do well to take note.

 

[stona]

Any nation needs to address its energy needs realistically. Ukraine hasn't ... and it's beholden to a bully.

The eastern part of the country will go the way Crimea has gone and Putin will have won. Any country which has its energy supplies in Putin's hands would do well to take note.

With that I agree. It's not just the Ukraine that depends on Russia for its energy needs, another reason why Putin will get away with this. The EU's response has included freezing the funds of some of Putins so called friends in foreign accounts, many in London. If this wasn't so desperate it would be laughable and at the first opportunity I guarantee these funds will be moved elsewhere.

The pathetic details can be viewed here.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/financial-sanctions-ukraine

Cheers

Steve

 

[pbehn]

Any nation needs to address its energy needs realistically. Ukraine hasn't ... and it's beholden to a bully.

The eastern part of the country will go the way Crimea has gone and Putin will have won. Any country which has its energy supplies in Putin's hands would do well to take note.

Michael it isnt new I expect things will move quickly on this now Nabucco pipeline - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia , I was involved in Audits 4 years ago

 

[oldcrowcv63]

Who's up on the International Space station right now ....?

Michael, two 'Russians', Alexander Skvortsov, and ethnic Latvian Oleg Artemyev are apparently currently on board although many Ukrainina astronauts have preceded him during the USSR days. Most recently a Ukrainian astronaut, Leonid Kadeniuk, flew on the Space Shuttle (STS-87) in 1997. I don't know whether any currently active Russian cosmonauts are ukrainian descent.

Interesting scenario, a shoot out on ISS between an ethnic Uk and Russian cosmonaut with collateral harm to the US on bystander hiding in the storage locker.

Energy?

France has 75% of its energy supplied by Nuclear power plants. The world should be mass producing quantities of new Gen-4 breeder nuc-plants without pressure vessel containment and characterized by minimal, short-duration radioactive waste. JMHO. But of course, the world, haunted by overblown press reports of the disasters at the old and outdated plants at Chernobyl and Daiichi doesn't want to hear about new nuclear development.

 

[stona]

France has 75% of its energy supplied by Nuclear power plants. The world should be mass producing quantities of new Gen-4 breeder nuc-plants without pressure vessel containment and characterized by minimal, short-duration radioactive waste. JMHO. But of course, the world, haunted by overblown press reports of the disasters at the old and outdated plants at Chernobyl and Daiichi doesn't want to hear about new nuclear development.

The nuclear option will eventually be forced on the developed world. Let's be honest, wind farms and solar panels just aren't going to do it.

Germany gets roughly 40% of its oil and gas via the Ukraine. The Germans will tread very carefully there and they carry much weight in the EU.

Cheers

Steve

 

[GrauGeist]

Moving under the auspices of "protecting ethnic speaking populations" isn't a new ruse. It's been done before.

Nibbling away at "lost territories" that contained ethnic populations while the leaders of countries rattled their sabres and spoke of consequences seems like a Deja Vue, doesn't it?