Coronavirus Thread

JAG88 · Mar 17, 2020

vikingBerserker said:
That is not what the data I posted stated, what is your source {not being a smart*ss, but I really want to know as I let facts and data drive my thinking].

But it hasnt, clearly.

You stated wuhan has under 1% and that puts it in the range of the FLU. You did.

People who dont get flu symptoms dont get tested, why would they? Only symptomatic people get tested for a well known sickness, otherwise you lack a reason to do so.

I'm pretty sure WHO, JAMA and NEJM are not playing anybody as a fool, they are making their comments based on the information they have on hand and based on past experiances.

Are you sure? The WHO is in CHINA'S POCKET, they have consistently and unabashedly PRAISED the country which started and covered up this whole mess, after all, its head is a communist from Ethiopia with old links to China...

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/14/asia/coronavirus-who-china-intl-hnk/index.html

"World Health Organization

Click to expand...

(WHO) officials on Tuesday estimated that the global mortality rate for new coronavirus infections, known as COVID-19, is about 3.4%, which is higher than the 2% officials previously had reported.

WHO Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said the 3.4% mortality rate for COVID-19 is higher than the flu's global mortality rate. "Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died. By comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1% of those infected," he said. However, WHO spokesperson Margaret Harris said COVID-19's updated mortality rate is a "crudely calculated" snapshot based on the growing number of cases outside of China and is expected to "change over time, and vary from place to place."

Public health experts have warned that discrepancies in how different countries report individual cases and determine how contagious the new coronavirus is makes it hard to determine a precise global case count, and as a result, we don't yet have an accurate mortality rate. For instance, research published last week in JAMA suggests the mortality rate for the virus currently is around 2%, while a report published Friday in the New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM) estimated the mortality rate is 1.4%.

According to an editorial published in NEJM by Anthony Fauci and Clifford Lane from the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, and CDC director Robert Redfield, the true death rate for the coronavirus could end up being below 1%, which would make it similar to the death rate seen in a severe flu season."

Is the new coronavirus deadlier than the flu?

That is the global average and that includes the dubious Chinese numbers and the good Korean ones AND ASYMPTOMATIC cases, you do understand that, right?

You live in the US, the US hasnt done crap regarding prevention or testing, basically you are following Italy's pattern... what makes you think the US is behaving anything like Korea in this case to pretend is going to reach Korea's numbers?

The real mortality rate is very likely to be low, that is a given, because the REAL number includes asymptomatic cases, and since those are the bulk the mortality rate is expected to be low.

BUT, since this is HIGHLY contagious to the point 60-70% of the population is expected to get it eventhough they WONT show symptoms, well...

US 330'000.000*65%=214'000.000 people infected

214'000.000*1.4%=3'000.000 dead

Now you can go back to being scared of Muslims and Mexicans.

DerAdlerIstGelandet · Mar 17, 2020

Alright everyone tone down the political rhetoric.

Marcel · Mar 17, 2020

mikewint said:
Marcel, you had me for a bit with that name. Here in the US it is called Acetaminophen or under the brand name TYLENOL. Got to be very careful about overdosing as it has some very negative affects on the liver.

Yeah, but not as much as both Ibuprofen (iso-butyl-propanoic-phenylic acid) and aspirin (acetylsalicylic acid). Of course any medicine will give you extra health problems if you take too much.

Marcel · Mar 17, 2020

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:
Alright everyone tone down the political rhetoric.

Ditto from here. Save the political debates for Facebook.

JAG88 · Mar 17, 2020

Sorry, off to read a book...

DerAdlerIstGelandet · Mar 17, 2020

Marcel said:
Ditto from here. Save the political debates for Facebook.

And just to add to this, everyone here can get their point across without being a dick. To everyone involved, don't get the thread closed a 2nd time because you cannot carry on a civil conversation like an adult.

The Basket · Mar 17, 2020

Already job losses in the UK.
My gym has closed.
School is about to close.
Crazy.
If the school closed then game over for me. And if it closed for months then all bad.

I always believed that western civilization can end in a few days. So looks like it's on.

FLYBOYJ · Mar 17, 2020

JAG88 said:
Now you can go back to being scared of Muslims and Mexicans.

One more IGNORANT statement like that and you're permanently banned!!!! This is EXACTLY what I was talking about earlier in this thread

FLYBOYJ · Mar 17, 2020

JAG88 said:
Sorry, off to read a book...

Make it a very long book!!!!!

Vincenzo · Mar 17, 2020

Italy report, 5 p.m. today
deaths 2,503, sicks cumulative 31,506, recoveries 2,941, tests 148,657
lethality rate 7.94%

FLYBOYJ · Mar 17, 2020

Vincenzo said:
Italy report, 5 p.m. today
deaths 2,503, sicks cumulative 31,506, recoveries 2,941, tests 148,657
lethality rate 7.94%

Thanks for the information Vincenzo - stay well!

Any information about the average age of those who died?

pbehn · Mar 17, 2020

Marcel said:
Yeah, but not as much as both Ibuprofen (iso-butyl-propanoic-phenylic acid) and aspirin (acetylsalicylic acid). Of course any medicine will give you extra health problems if you take too much.

The UK are now advising against Ibuprofen for Coronavirus symptoms.

Vincenzo · Mar 17, 2020

FLYBOYJ said:
Any information about the average age of those who died?

was 79.4, calculated on 1014 deaths to 13th march

DerAdlerIstGelandet · Mar 17, 2020

I thought we might learn from this, I guess not. Paid sick leave has been gutted from the Coronavirus relief bill. I don't understand why a population as well as our leaders are so against this.

fubar57 · Mar 17, 2020

In Canada at the moment

Ontario: 177 confirmed cases, including five cases listed as resolved.
British Columbia: 103 confirmed, including four deaths and five cases listed as resolved.
Alberta: 74 confirmed.
Quebec: 50 confirmed.
Saskatchewan: five presumptive, two confirmed.
New Brunswick: five presumptive, two confirmed.
Manitoba: seven confirmed, one presumptive.
Canadians quarantined at CFB Trenton: eight confirmed.
Nova Scotia: four presumptive, one confirmed.
Prince Edward Island: one confirmed.
Newfoundland and Labrador: one presumptive.

The four deaths in B.C. all occurred in the same health care facility and now there is a possibility of one death in Ontario

michael rauls · Mar 17, 2020

Vincenzo said:
unlucky this is not a news, already from China came news you can get it again but there were some hope in test wrong

For whatever its worth ive heard 3 health care professionals, including one of the Chinese doctors who were on this early on say that it appears a small percentage of the population( one of them said about 2%) doesn't make sufficient antibodies the first time around and can get it again.
I guess thats better than everyone getting it a 2nd time. Hopefully those people, if they do get it again, will make sufficient antibodies the 2nd time around.

fubar57 · Mar 17, 2020

Not sure if this has been posted...https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/china-covid-19-vaccination-1.5500202 What got me was this...

"Details in the Chinese clinical trial registration database show that a Phase 1 test that will examine whether the experimental shot is safe in humans aims to recruit 108 healthy people to take part between March 16 and Dec. 31."

pbehn · Mar 17, 2020

Beyond the medical effects of the virus France yesterday and UK today made unprecedented commitments to spending, hope it works.

mikewint · Mar 17, 2020

FLYBOYJ said:
Any information about the average age of those who died?

Joe, IMHO that age would be/is very misleading as are almost all the stats on this disease. Let's begin with the median & mean age. Any median and mean taken from this skewed curve is essentially useless as the are going to be far far apart. In general older sicker males with preexisting conditions are much more likely to die than their younger healthier females and males for that matter.

The biggest problem and the factor that skews these stats into "best guess" territory is the vast number of unreported mild and asymptomatic cases. Consider a study by the Imperial College of London:

Assuming the number of people who have reportedly died from COVID-19 is reasonably accurate, then the percentage of infected people who die from the disease must have been much lower than the 2–3% estimates commonly reported. That is because the number of infected people is much larger than the number tested and reported. Most people infected by COVID-19 are never counted as being infected. That is because, the Imperial College study explains, "the bottom of the pyramid represents the likeliest largest population of those infected with either mild, non‐specific symptoms or who are asymptomatic." So as you can see, even here more guess work.

The Director General of the World Health Organization (WHO), Tedros Adhanom, stated in his February 28 briefing, "Most people will have a mild disease and get better without needing any special care." Several studies have found that about 80% of all the COVID-19 cases have relatively minor symptoms which end without severe illness and therefore remain unreported and thus are not part of any statistical study.

FLYBOYJ · Mar 17, 2020

mikewint said:
Joe, IMHO that age would be/is very misleading as are almost all the stats on this disease. Let's begin with the median & mean age. Any median and mean taken from this skewed curve is essentially useless as the are going to be far far apart. In general older sicker males with preexisting conditions are much more likely to die than their younger healthier females and males for that matter.

View attachment 573917

The biggest problem and the factor that skews these stats into "best guess" territory is the vast number of unreported mild and asymptomatic cases. Consider a study by the Imperial College of London:

View attachment 573918
Assuming the number of people who have reportedly died from COVID-19 is reasonably accurate, then the percentage of infected people who die from the disease must have been much lower than the 2–3% estimates commonly reported. That is because the number of infected people is much larger than the number tested and reported. Most people infected by COVID-19 are never counted as being infected. That is because, the Imperial College study explains, "the bottom of the pyramid represents the likeliest largest population of those infected with either mild, non‐specific symptoms or who are asymptomatic." So as you can see, even here more guess work.

The Director General of the World Health Organization (WHO), Tedros Adhanom, stated in his February 28 briefing, "Most people will have a mild disease and get better without needing any special care." Several studies have found that about 80% of all the COVID-19 cases have relatively minor symptoms which end without severe illness and therefore remain unreported and thus are not part of any statistical study.

Mike, appreciate all the data you cut and pasted but I was asking Vincenzo about Italy (where he lives). I am well aware of how there are a lot of unknowns and skewed statistics. but one thing we do know - the ages of those who died!

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