Coronavirus Thread (1 Viewer)
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So much for children pretty much skating by...
Study Finds 6 Percent of Children in China with Coronavirus Developed Serious Illnesses
Study Finds 6 Percent of Children in China with Coronavirus Developed Serious Illnesses
new ISS (~health higher institute) report updated to 17th march and 2,003 deaths
average age 79.5 years
here the report, in italian, https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-COVID-2019_17_marzo-v2.pdf
an other ISS report, ever in italian, https://www.epicentro.iss.it/corona...eglianza integrata COVID-19_16 marzo 2020.pdf
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mikewint
Captain
Chris, I'm very sorry to hear that your friends were infected. Hopefully they are young and the disease will be mild. They are fortunate that those who infected them remembered all those that they had been in contact with during that period of time. COVID-19 is very insidious in that those who have it are most infectious before showing symptoms.
From Munich Clinic Schwabing, a teaching hospital, Clemens Wendtner, director of infectious disease and tropical medicine at the hospital announced the results of 9 patients who contracted the virus in Germany. Tests showed that they were contagious in the first week of the disease and before symptoms appeared. Nasal and throat swabs taken at the time showed that the patients produced thousands to millions of infectious viruses in their noses and throats. After the eighth day of symptoms, the researchers could still detect the virus's genetic material, RNA, in patients' swabs or samples, but could no longer find infectious viruses. The researchers theorized that the patients were producing antibodies that were killing the free virus particles.
So if that is true for most people it is not good news because if you are one of the asymptomatic COVID-19 cases or are just mildly with it or just getting sick, you're putting out a whole lot of virus particles. In effect passing the disease to others totally unaware
From Munich Clinic Schwabing, a teaching hospital, Clemens Wendtner, director of infectious disease and tropical medicine at the hospital announced the results of 9 patients who contracted the virus in Germany. Tests showed that they were contagious in the first week of the disease and before symptoms appeared. Nasal and throat swabs taken at the time showed that the patients produced thousands to millions of infectious viruses in their noses and throats. After the eighth day of symptoms, the researchers could still detect the virus's genetic material, RNA, in patients' swabs or samples, but could no longer find infectious viruses. The researchers theorized that the patients were producing antibodies that were killing the free virus particles.
So if that is true for most people it is not good news because if you are one of the asymptomatic COVID-19 cases or are just mildly with it or just getting sick, you're putting out a whole lot of virus particles. In effect passing the disease to others totally unaware
So much for the conspiracy that no one knows who these infected people are...
Some countries, including the UK are past that stage. They are no longer tracing contacts and testing. That's why there will be many untested and infected people at large. Only those presenting with symptoms will be tested. The dead are not being tested (people still die, even if not infected!).
We do not have reliable figures for the total number of infections. They are estimated according to epidemiological models. The UK's Chief Medical Officer, several days ago, gave a wide ranging estimate for total infections, between twenty and fifty times the number who had tested positive.
Airframes
Benevolens Magister
Anyone know the time period between confirmed infection and fatality ?
Seems to be fairly rapid.
Seems to be fairly rapid.
MiTasol
1st Lieutenant
You got that in one. That is the outlook of many people and probably all governments. During the SARS outbreak more people died from Ebola in one small part of Turkey than died of SARS. For some reason that part of Turkey regularly gets an outbreak at a certain time of year and it never spreads so no one else cares.
one of italian report i've posted
give (median)
8 days from symptoms to death
4 days from symptoms to hospitalization
4 days from hospitalization to death, this became 5 days if go in ICU
Airframes
Benevolens Magister
Thanks for the quick response. Rather frightening !
See my post 513 on page 26...
mikewint
Captain
Chris, what surprised me was the viral load in those asymptomatic individuals. They're contagious as hell and yet feel and look perfectly normal. Then you feel ill, get tested, 3-4 days later you have a positive....now, let's see how many people did I come in contact with over the last week...
MiTasol
1st Lieutenant
That is good information Vincenzo as that is an important set of statistics that I have not seen in the ISID reports from any country and my son in law in Seattle is on day 3 since diagnosis so if he is still home on Sunday we will be able to ease off, but not stop, our worrying.
Did you read the link?
mikewint
Captain
Yea but I fergetted about it till your post about your friends in Germany then it klicked
Crimea_River
Marshal
It's important, I think, to understand what are hard numbers and what numbers are affected by variables. Unfortunately, I think that the vast majority of numbers being discussed above have many underlying variables attached and can therefore be misinterpreted.
Completely understandable and inevitable. The only way to really get the total number of infections is to test everyone in a given population at the same point in time. To get the true infection fatality rate (IFR) then, you would have to track that exact same population over the full course of the illness with no other variable entering in. But even this is variable as the number of people that die in any given population depends on yet more variables such as age distribution and quality/availability of health care.
My observation is that it's the case fatality rate (CFR) that's what's mostly being discussed in many previous posts and that is sometimes being construed as the IFR. I understand this to be the death rate amongst cases known to be infected, those that have presented themselves for testing. Because it excludes those who may be infected but who have not been tested, the CFR will always be greater than the IFR. I think this is why people are getting confused by the numbers.
Again, though the numbers may be correct, let's understand the variables. So far the vast majority of cases have been mild and in most cases people will recover. If you discover symptoms, you will PROBABLY not die in 8 days. Rather, you may be among the many who will fully recover. Similarly, you my not even need to be hospitalized.
Of course, age is an important variable and one that is very much the concern for many of us on this forum! My hope is that we all do our best to understand as best as we can what's behind all these numbers and to not get freaked out about what, at first glance, appear to be alarming stats.
Completely understandable and inevitable. The only way to really get the total number of infections is to test everyone in a given population at the same point in time. To get the true infection fatality rate (IFR) then, you would have to track that exact same population over the full course of the illness with no other variable entering in. But even this is variable as the number of people that die in any given population depends on yet more variables such as age distribution and quality/availability of health care.
My observation is that it's the case fatality rate (CFR) that's what's mostly being discussed in many previous posts and that is sometimes being construed as the IFR. I understand this to be the death rate amongst cases known to be infected, those that have presented themselves for testing. Because it excludes those who may be infected but who have not been tested, the CFR will always be greater than the IFR. I think this is why people are getting confused by the numbers.
Again, though the numbers may be correct, let's understand the variables. So far the vast majority of cases have been mild and in most cases people will recover. If you discover symptoms, you will PROBABLY not die in 8 days. Rather, you may be among the many who will fully recover. Similarly, you my not even need to be hospitalized.
Of course, age is an important variable and one that is very much the concern for many of us on this forum! My hope is that we all do our best to understand as best as we can what's behind all these numbers and to not get freaked out about what, at first glance, appear to be alarming stats.
my wrong, i suppose that was clear that was valid only for the sicks go to die, most don't die.
ISS reports are full of data also on age, the 79.5 average for the deaths, and around 59 for the sicks.
the reports imho are for the public are too easy, probably there are more scientific reports for the experts
N4521U
Colonel
My wife teaches 2nd grade,
I'm gonna be 77 soon.
WTF ay?
I'm gonna be 77 soon.
WTF ay?
FLYBOYJ
"THE GREAT GAZOO"
In my part of the world, Lakewood Colorado, about 15 miles east of Denver...
My employer sent our entire office team (11 of us) home yesterday. We have been set up to work from home so I have no disruption of employment (counting my blessings). I ventured out around 5 pm today to pick up a pizza. The restaurant offered "contact or non-contact" pick-up. This pizza restaurant was in a small strip mall and all the other food businesses were either closed or offering pick up or carry out only. Down the street I noticed a few fast food restaurants, their drive up windows were bustling.
After dinner I took my oldest daughter to a local supermarket to pick up "snacks." There were no paper products, limited amounts of certain meats, some bread and almost no pastas. Aside from that, plenty of other foods. I heard a few of the store employees saying a big shipment of items was coming in tonight.
My food and toilet paper stocks are good, I could honker down for a month if I had to.
The Governor of Colorado is closing all schools until at least until April 17.
San Miguel County issued a "shelter in place" order because of a high positive test rate.
2300 people tested, 216 positive, 2 dead, both with underlying health conditions. There is talk of a total state lockdown.
My daughter told me some of her friends called this pandemic (in very bad taste) the "Boomer Remover" because of the age of those being affected by it. In my sick sense of humor, I had to chuckle. (I'll be 61 in a few weeks)
On top of all this, tomorrow we may be getting up to 6 inches of snow delivered by 35 mph winds.
I have plenty of food and booze and I thank god I'm feeling pretty damn good!
My employer sent our entire office team (11 of us) home yesterday. We have been set up to work from home so I have no disruption of employment (counting my blessings). I ventured out around 5 pm today to pick up a pizza. The restaurant offered "contact or non-contact" pick-up. This pizza restaurant was in a small strip mall and all the other food businesses were either closed or offering pick up or carry out only. Down the street I noticed a few fast food restaurants, their drive up windows were bustling.
After dinner I took my oldest daughter to a local supermarket to pick up "snacks." There were no paper products, limited amounts of certain meats, some bread and almost no pastas. Aside from that, plenty of other foods. I heard a few of the store employees saying a big shipment of items was coming in tonight.
My food and toilet paper stocks are good, I could honker down for a month if I had to.
The Governor of Colorado is closing all schools until at least until April 17.
San Miguel County issued a "shelter in place" order because of a high positive test rate.
2300 people tested, 216 positive, 2 dead, both with underlying health conditions. There is talk of a total state lockdown.
My daughter told me some of her friends called this pandemic (in very bad taste) the "Boomer Remover" because of the age of those being affected by it. In my sick sense of humor, I had to chuckle. (I'll be 61 in a few weeks)
On top of all this, tomorrow we may be getting up to 6 inches of snow delivered by 35 mph winds.
I have plenty of food and booze and I thank god I'm feeling pretty damn good!
michael rauls
Tech Sergeant
- 1,679
- Jul 15, 2016
When I went shopping this last Sunday I to found many of the shelves empty. I did notice however there were still plenty of brussel sprouts.......and wierd canned good like " seafood broth".............yum.
Crimea_River
Marshal
Very similar to here in Alberta Joe. In Calgary, in particular, we have 83 of the province's 119 confirmed cases. 14447 total in Alberta tested negative. No deaths yet. All City run facilities are closed so no pools, gyms, libraries etc. All schools K to 12 sent out a notice last Sunday for the kids to stay home. Next week is March break anyway but today, kids were asked to come in to the school my wife works at in shifts of small groups to collect all the stuff out of their lockers. A lot of work is happening to make the rest of the curriculum available on the net so once that's set up, I suspect there won't be much thought given to bringing the kids back to class til next September.
Nearby Banff is usually a skiing mecca for tourists but now nobody is coming in. Canada closed the borders yesterday to all foreigners except for US citizens involved in shipping goods over the border. The ski hills as closed and Banff is basically telling everyone to stay away - nothing to see here.
Back here in town, all facilities/events involving gatherings of 50 or more people are cancelled. Movie theatres are closed. Live theatre and music festivals cancelled. Our Mosquito restoration group cancelled our AGM that was supposed to happen tonight because the venue shuttered the doors. I do a regular Wednesday night card game over a pint with friends at the Legion - no more as the Legion closed. Restaurants are all struggling.
Stores haven't been too bad. We had an initial rush of stupid people hoarding the usual crap but we're not too bad now. I'll head out tomorrow again for a few essentials and have another look-see.
We had our big snow last Saturday - about 8 inches with arctic temperatures of -21C and high winds. Now it's "warmer" and snowing again. But, like you, we have plenty of booze and food and the family is healthy. Thanking our luck so far and hoping for the best.
Nearby Banff is usually a skiing mecca for tourists but now nobody is coming in. Canada closed the borders yesterday to all foreigners except for US citizens involved in shipping goods over the border. The ski hills as closed and Banff is basically telling everyone to stay away - nothing to see here.
Back here in town, all facilities/events involving gatherings of 50 or more people are cancelled. Movie theatres are closed. Live theatre and music festivals cancelled. Our Mosquito restoration group cancelled our AGM that was supposed to happen tonight because the venue shuttered the doors. I do a regular Wednesday night card game over a pint with friends at the Legion - no more as the Legion closed. Restaurants are all struggling.
Stores haven't been too bad. We had an initial rush of stupid people hoarding the usual crap but we're not too bad now. I'll head out tomorrow again for a few essentials and have another look-see.
We had our big snow last Saturday - about 8 inches with arctic temperatures of -21C and high winds. Now it's "warmer" and snowing again. But, like you, we have plenty of booze and food and the family is healthy. Thanking our luck so far and hoping for the best.
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