Coronavirus Thread

[nsmekanik]

On the plus side of things the bog roll supply here has bounced back and the limitation have been upped from 2 to 4 per house hold. Not worried about getting laid off anytime soon as I've been working 12 hour shifts, which will hopefully end soon, and it looks like we're going to be working 6 days a week. Being the little introverts we are, self isolation is almost a life style choice, OK we're not that bad, but honestly we've got enough things to keep us occupied so aren't feeling the social pinch, mind you we are not truly self isolated, so even though we are physically high risk, we are socially at a lower risk.

As I'm reading through all this I truly am counting my blessings and offer my best wishes and condolences to everyone who is suffering through this.

 

[Vincenzo]

Italy partially lockdown of production

worldwide go over 300k sicks cumulative and 13k deaths

 

[Crimea_River]

Yesterday my son was given til Tuesday to leave his dorm at the University of Alberta. They are making sure no two or more people have to live together so those who are local and have somewhere to go need to vamoose so I have to drive up tomorrow 3 hours there and back to get him and his stuff. He shares his room with a guy from Mexico, who is able to stay because he has nowhere else to go.

 

[michael rauls]

This thing is really getting crazy. Best of luck to all here on this site( and everywhere of course).
I still have to work 5 days a week, 12 hrs a day through this as one of the things we haul is trash which makes us a vital service( you want to really see this thing get out of hand try letting trash pile up for 8 weeks) but also exposes us to this big time. Kinda wish I was back at my last job just hauling sand and gravel right now......Oh well.

 

[at6]

well kitchen has been scrubbed, all food suitable has been frozen.

my GM is insisting all staff report for work as normal until end of day monday or they will not be paid, restrictions are for the public not for staff, even though the hotel is empty


had a blazing row with him as that is not what the PM said but have to comply with his wishes for now

Does GM stand for Gut Maggot?

 

[jetcal1]

Does GM stand for Gut Maggot?

Genuine Moron

 

[at6]

I'm thinking about rewriting "I've Got You Babe" to "I've Got Wuhan". I call it that because it came from there.
I tested positive and now they say
I must enter quarentine
If I step out of my front door
They yell and cause a scene
I've got Wuhan
DO DOOT TA DOOT
I've got Wuhan.

 

[jetcal1]

I'm thinking about rewriting "I've Got You Babe" to "I've Got Wuhan". I call it that because it came from there.
I tested positive and now they say
I must enter quarentine
If I step out of my front door
They yell and cause a scene
I've got Wuhan
DO DOOT TA DOOT
I've got Wuhan.

Hopefully I'm misreading your humor and you have not tested positive.

 

[michael rauls]

Just a thought on the proposition that we may be over reacting to this. At first I thought maybe we were, though I wasn't sure, but now I don't think we are. I think the reaction is justified and if anything short. Here's why........in my estimation we get one shot at getting this under control. If we don't and it returns yearly like the flu God help us. Especially the elderly. Society will be forced to except it due to the economic collapse that would result from yearly shutdowns of this nature. So better to go all out now than wish we did later. Imho

 

[michael rauls]

I didn't think about that angle. I just read the lyrics and got a chuckle. You ok At6?
( Larry I believe? Sorry im so bad at remembering names)

 

[jetcal1]

Just a thought on the proposition that we may be over reacting to this. At first I thought maybe we were, though I wasn't sure, but now I don't think we are. I think the reaction is justified and if anything short. Here's why........in my estimation we get one shot at getting this under control. If we don't and it returns yearly like the flu God help us. Especially the elderly. Society will be forced to except it due to the economic collapse that would result from yearly shutdowns of this nature. So better to go all out now than wish we did later. Imho

Normalcy bias is a wonderful thing. Ain't it?

 

[michael rauls]

Normalcy bias is a wonderful thing. Ain't it?

Well I don't think it was normalcy bias on my part. That is something im very conscious to look out for as it is (or rather positioning against it) is an integral component of deep value investing which I favor.
For me I was looking at alot of conflicting stats so it was unclear the best course of action. Some people think that changing your mind when new information becomes available or admitting your not sure of the correct course of action until the body of evidence indicates such implies weakness or indecision......I don't. Sticking to your guns in the face of changing evidence or rushing to make decisions before the data is clear can be very costly.

 

[jetcal1]

Well I don't think it was normalcy bias on my part. That is something im very conscious to look out for as it is (or rather positioning against it) is an integral component of deep value investing which I favor.
For me I was looking at alot of conflicting stats so it was unclear the best course of action. Some people think that changing your mind when new information becomes available or admitting your not sure of the correct course of action until the body of evidence indicates such implies weakness or indecision......I don't. Sticking to your guns in the face of changing evidence or rushing to make decisions before the data is clear can be very costly.

My point being it's hard sometimes to look past the conflicting stats and see what's going on. I'm hoping that things get back to normal again in about 7 weeks, although the conflicting data says it's more likely to be well into July.

 

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

The US has moved into third for number of confirmed infections, and that number is doubling every 3 days...

of course that could also be attributed to more testing being done.

Coronavirus Update (Live): 308,463 Cases and 13,069 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer

Also, an interesting read here from this article that really touches on what I was saying last week about how our healthcare system will be bogged down. It's upon us...

A top New York surgeon warns that the coronavirus has 'breached' hospital walls and infections could peak in 22 to 32 days

 

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

My point being it's hard sometimes to look past the conflicting stats and see what's going on. I'm hoping that things get back to normal again in about 7 weeks, although the conflicting data says it's more likely to be well into July.

I've pretty much been told to expect to work from home for at least 8 weeks.

St. Louis today issued a shelter in place order. They said we are now seeing community spreading in the city. It's past containment now.

 

[MiTasol]

well kitchen has been scrubbed, all food suitable has been frozen.

my GM is insisting all staff report for work as normal until end of day monday or they will not be paid, restrictions are for the public not for staff, even though the hotel is empty


had a blazing row with him as that is not what the PM said but have to comply with his wishes for now

He must be ex military or ex public service

 

[MiTasol]

On a somewhat positive note that makes me feel a little better about the government action in this though perhaps not entirely thrilled, read yesterday the company, cure vac( I think I've got the name right), representatives of other companies that were at the conference, and multiple witnesses to the conversation all say this didn't happen.
Could all those people be lying? Eh maybe but put that together with the fact the time line makes this story make no sense and I think we can pretty much rest assured that however comming up short our government response may be, at least that kinda stuff isn't going on.

Normally I would agree but there is also a story in the US press that a certain Presidents son-in-laws brother had just registered a company to make and sell a Corvid-19 vaccine before that meeting and both families are known to be control freaks and like large profits. And yes CureVac was the German company.

 

[MiTasol]

I dont see any difference between a restaurant and bar and a hotel restaurant and bar but hey, what do i know ?

except that the hotel guests, if any, have to feed. If no guests then I totally agree with you.

 

[MiTasol]

Best wishes to best of them.

 

[ThomasP]

Hey guys,

I thought the following might be of interest and maybe answer a few questions:

Swine Flu (H1N1)
H1N1 (in humans) is spread from human to human by contact/proximity. (It is occasionally spread from swine to human and vise versa, but these cross-species mutations are relatively mild in comparison to the human-to-human type.)

H1N1 1918 pandemic
450,000,000-600,000,000 estimated infected worldwide
50,000,000-100,000,000 dead (6%-10% mortality rate)

H1N1 2009 pandemic
43,000,000-89,000,000 estimated infected worldwide (1st year only)
2,000 dead (1st year only) (2.2%-4.6% mortality rate)

H1N1 2015 epidemic
10,000 reported infected (India only)
775 dead reported (India only) (7.8% mortality rate)


West Nile virus
West Nile is spread from infected animals or infected humans to humans via mosquito bite. No mosquito, no spread. (There may have been a few cases in where it was transmitted via blood transfusion.)


Zika virus
Zika virus is spread from infected humans to humans via mosquito bite. No mosquito, no spread. (There may have been a few cases in where it was transmitted via blood transfusion.)


SARS-CoV (Coronavirus)
Transmission (in humans) occurs from human to human by contact/proximity.

SARS-CoV February-July 2003 epidemic (pandemic?)
Transmission occurs from human to human, usually in the second week of infection. The majority of cases occurred in a health care environment due to poor sterile/isolation procedures.
8,000+ reported infected, primarily in China, but spread to 25+ countries)
780 dead reported
The overall mortality rate of ~10% was above 50% for those of age 60+.

Please note that warm weather does not appear to significantly effect the transmission of SARS-CoV. Other than exposure to elevated levels of UV light, here is no evidence, to date, of any warm climate reducing effect.*


MERS-CoV (Coronavirus)
Transmission (in humans) occurs from human to human by contact/proximity.

First known case occurred in Jordan in 2012. The outbreak has been confined in the Middle East for the most part, primarily to the Arabian Peninsula, though South Korea had an outbreak in 2015.

MERS-CoV is an equal opportunity virus, patients have ranged in age from younger than 1 to 99 years old, and most MERS-CoV patients develop severe respiratory illness with symptoms of fever, cough and shortness of breath, regardless of age. However, MERS-CoV (like SARS-CoV and COVID-19) is most likely to hit the elderly the hardest, with the large majority of deaths occurring in the 65 and older age group.

The overall mortality rate of MERS-CoV is extreme, substantially higher than that of SARS-CoV or COVID-19, at between 30% and 40%. For an as yet unknown reason, MERS-CoV does not transmit as readily as SARS-CoV and COVID-19.

During the South Korea outbreak, there were 38 deaths out of 186 confirmed cases, a mortality rate of 20%.

There have only been 2 confirmed cases in the US, with 0 US deaths.

The WHO and US CDC, along the equivalent agencies of other countries, are closely monitoring the situation in the Middle East.

Please note that warm weather does not appear to significantly effect the transmission of MERS-CoV. Other than exposure to elevated levels of UV light, here is no evidence, to date, of any warm climate reducing effect.*


COVID-19 (Coronavirus)
Transmission (in humans) occurs from human to human by contact/proximity.

Data from China shows that each COVID-19 patient seems to infect around 2 to 2.5 additional people. The average flu patient spreads the flu virus to about 1.3 others. The same data set from China shows that 20% of COVID-19 cases are serious enough to get sent to the hospital. That's about 10x times more often than flu. This is in line with US CDC findings that the hospitalization rate for the flu is 1%-2% depending on type.

As of 29 February 2020 there were 15 (22?) confirmed COVID-19 cases in the US, with 1 resulting death (in Seattle WA).

As of 15 March 2020, out of 4,226 confirmed COVID-19 cases in the US, there were 44 resulting deaths, for a mortality rate of just over 1%. 80% of US deaths related to COVID-19 were in the age group of 65+, with 34% of deaths older than 85. There had been no US COVID-19 related deaths (as of March 16) of anyone under 19 years of age.

As of 21 March 2020, out of 26,867 confirmed COVID-19 cases in the US, there were 348 resulting deaths, for a mortality rate of just under 1.3%.

The mortality rate for the seasonal flu that comes around each year is .1%, or in other words, the US mortality rate for COVID-19 is 10x-13x that of the seasonal flu, so far.

Please note that warm weather does not appear to reduce the transmission of COVID-19. Other than exposure to elevated levels of UV light, here is no evidence, to date, of any warm climate reducing effect.*


For anyone who thinks that the current behavior/actions of the WHO, US CDC, and the equivalent agencies of other countries are under- or over-estimating the potential danger of COVID-19:

SARS | Guidance in Absence of SARS-CoV Transmission Worldwide | CDC

Although the above link is to a document produced by the US CDC, the modern equivalent agencies in most other nations with capable healthcare systems, as well as the WHO, have very similar documents.

It is also telling in that - though the US has an agency (the CDC) specifically for such things, and possesses a massive modern healthcare system - even with this document from late-2003 indicating how seriously the CDC took a potential later SARS-CoV outbreak - the US was still seriously unprepared for the current COVID-19 outbreak. In this case, as far as I can tell, politics had little to do with the US experience. There was, however, a serious initial willingness to ignore the potential problems by the current government.

*A general rule is that temperatures of 60°C/140°F for 60 minutes or more are required to destroy most viruses. Except for direct exposure to sunlight on some surfaces (such as sand in the desert for one example) these temperatures do not generally occur under humans living conditions.