Coronavirus Thread

[MiTasol]

In Italy the deaths under 50 are 1%, that over 99%
https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Infografica_23marzo ENG.pdf

Thank you for the correct information.

 

[jetcal1]

probably true

Even as a sailor, I couldn't keep up with my English hosts the several times I went drinking with them.
And, frankly? A poolside shandy at 9 AM was a bit too much for me. (I keep track on that last one, my host knocked back 25 pints (Imperial, of course.) that was the last time I went crawling with an Englishman.

 

[pbehn]

1.202%
4.387%
0.752%
Why would that be? The virus can survive at 98.6F...

Further to my other post, a virus isn't like a bullet it is like flak. The further away you are from the source the better, it may be theoretically possible to down a B-17 with a rifle but highly unlikely. To make a B-17 sick or kill it you need hundreds of rifle bullets, not the same in a Zeke and certainly not a Dr1 Triplane. The stronger you are and the more protection you have coupled with the distance from danger the better your chances are. The virus can survive at 98.6 F but not for as long, so the concentration of the virus is less and so it is less dangerous at that temperature humidity is also a factor.

 

[michael rauls]

1.202%
4.387%
0.752%
Why would that be? The virus can survive at 98.6F...

Because the casing( can't think of the proper term right now) that encapsulates the virus degrades much quicker in higher temperatures.

 

[TheMadPenguin]

In Italy the deaths under 50 are 1%, that over 99%
https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Infografica_23marzo ENG.pdf

Can you say what age is the 50%/50% mid-point (average age of victim at death)?

 

[Zipper730]

To P pbehn and M michael rauls

So, it can't survive high temperatures outside the confines of the human body? Inside the human body, it can last enough to latch onto a host and keep the cycle going?

 

[ThomasP]

Hey TheMadPenguin,

See Vincenzo's posts#533 & 583.

 

[pbehn]

To P pbehn and M michael rauls

So, it can't survive high temperatures outside the confines of the human body? Inside the human body, it can last enough to latch onto a host and keep the cycle going?

I am not an expert, why don't you read some stuff instead of firing a simple question that will lead to more questions. I have been in a dry air temperature of 110C (not a misprint 110C) measuring a cracking furnace tube temperature with a thermographic camera in Saudi Arabia. That is fatal to humans for any sort of extended period. We worked in a group of 3 for 10 minutes in an hour, only one was required but you needed the other two for safety, if anyone fell down the two standing had to drag the other guy out.

 

[michael rauls]

To P pbehn and M michael rauls

So, it can't survive high temperatures outside the confines of the human body? Inside the human body, it can last enough to latch onto a host and keep the cycle going?

It can't remain viable as long in higher temperatures. It's a progressive scale.

 

[Vincenzo]

Can you say what age is the 50%/50% mid-point (average age of victim at death)?

the age are for teens, from 30 to 79 we have 50,4% of deaths, so around 78 years and 11 months could be the median, the average in a bit older docs was 78.5 years
take in the count that the average age in Italy is over 45 years

a statistical note average and median are not the same thing

 

[pbehn]

Can you say what age is the 50%/50% mid-point (average age of victim at death)?

Just on UK TV UK critical care admissions for CV19. 71% male average age 62.6 ...…….5% are under 30, 10% are 40-49 20% are 50-59, 27% are 60-69 28% are 70-79 and 6% are 80+

75% of patients needed a ventilator within 24 hours of admission 50% of those who have recovered needed a ventillator for 9 days or more, 12% needed kidney dialysis.

 

[ThomasP]

Hey Zipper730,

With the normal flu type virus warm weather will reduce the rate of transmission. This is primarily due to a beneficial effect on the mucus linings of the human body. The higher temperatures do not directly cause the reduction in transmission from human to human. However, when the weather is warmer, there is usually a higher level of UV light, resulting in the destruction of the virus when sitting on directly and indirectly exposed surfaces.

In addition, some viruses are more vulnerable to different levels of humidity, due to the humidity's effect on the protective coatings that exist on many viruses. The max possible level of ambient humidity varies depending on the air temperature, altitude, and available water source.

However, according to recent postings by the WHO, and other agencies:

From my post#720 with bold emphasis added:

"Please note that warm weather does not appear to reduce the transmission of COVID-19. Other than exposure to elevated levels of UV light, there is no evidence, to date, of any warm climate reducing effect.*"

"*A general rule is that temperatures of 60°C/140°F for 60 minutes or more are required to destroy most viruses. Except for direct exposure to sunlight on some surfaces (such as sand in the desert for one example) these temperatures do not generally occur under humans living conditions."

TIme will tell us more, as the virus spreads in countries that are near the equator (Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, southern India, etc) or in the southern hemisphere such as Australia - including many of the African and South American nations which cover both latitudes.

 

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

We had the first two deaths here today. A man in his 70's died in St. Charles county (where I live) as well as a women in her 30's died in St. Louis city.

 

[gumbyk]

TIme will tell us more, as the virus spreads in countries that are near the equator (Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, southern India, etc) or in the southern hemisphere such as Australia - including many of the African and South American nations which cover both latitudes.

We're just coming into winter so its getting colder down here, and flu season is about to start, so they're both ramping up together... Could be ugly if both peak together.

 

[michael rauls]

After more research...... chloroquine is in fact a synthetic darivitive of quinine with the same mechanism of action. In a trial in South Korea 8 of 12 people treated with chloroquine were rid of the Covid19 virus after 6 days. In the placebo control group 2 out of 12 were rid of it in 6 days.
In a previous post I suggested that quinine MAY help with Covid19. Upon further research I think it's fairly safe to say, at least if this study is any indication( and yes the test group is small but the difference in recovery times is dramatic) that chloroquine/ quinine IS helpful( very) with Covid19.
As I mentioned in my previous post quinine is the active ingredient in tonic water.
So let's get to tipping back a few gin and tonics.
In all seriousness probably better to leave the gin part out under these circumstances........unfortunately.

 

[TheMadPenguin]

quinine IS helpful( very) with Covid19.
As I mentioned in my previous post quinine is the active ingredient in tonic water.
So let's get to tipping back a few gin and tonics.
In all seriousness probably better to leave the gin part out under these circumstances........unfortunately.

Have you found any note how many mg/dose and how many dose/day?
(that's probably a LOT of tonic for the dosage)

 

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

After more research...... chloroquine is in fact a synthetic darivitive of quinine with the same mechanism of action. In a trial in South Korea 8 of 12 people treated with chloroquine were rid of the Covid19 virus after 6 days. In the placebo control group 2 out of 12 were rid of it in 6 days.
In a previous post I suggested that quinine MAY help with Covid19. Upon further research I think it's fairly safe to say, at least if this study is any indication( and yes the test group is small but the difference in recovery times is dramatic) that chloroquine/ quinine IS helpful( very) with Covid19.
As I mentioned in my previous post quinine is the active ingredient in tonic water.
So let's get to tipping back a few gin and tonics.
In all seriousness probably better to leave the gin part out under these circumstances........unfortunately.

Chloroquine can have very serious and common side affects, including depression and suicidal thoughts. Its actually pretty common.

In Iraq we were all given chloroquine to prevent malaria. Many complained of nasty effects. I actually stopped taking it. I decided I would take my chances with malaria (pretty shitty decision to make) because I just felt terrible.

 

[TheMadPenguin]

Chloroquine can have very serious and common side affects, including depression and suicidal thoughts. Its actually pretty common. In Iraq we were all given chloroquine to prevent malaria. Many complained of nasty effects. I actually stopped taking it. I decided I would take my chances with malaria (pretty shitty decision to make) because I just felt terrible.

How bad were these side effect in the first 6-10 days? (serious question here)
I can see these effect affecting a trooper's work, especially if you don't have the malaria, but somebody in isolation who does have COVID-19 might see things a bit different.

 

[michael rauls]

Have you found any note how many mg/dose and how many dose/day?
(that's probably a LOT of tonic for the dosage)

If I remember right, I'll double check and report back. The dosage of quinine for malaria was typically 300mg. A typical 4oz tonic water will give you about 10 mg.
The mechanism of action is a little lengthy to discribe here but my impression was that it was not subject to a efective dose band in relation to its viral replication inhibitive properties. That is many drugs have an effective dose below which they are ineffective and above which they are toxic. Other drugs have a best dose above which the potential for side effects outweighs possible benefits but even a lower dose is still beneficial, although less so. Quinine/chloroquine from what I could gather indicated from it's mechanism of action falls into the later category in relation the viral replication inhibition properties but not it's anti malarial properties.
That's a long way of saying even 30, 40, or 50 miligrams should be helpful to some degree.

 

[Zippythehog]

If not already stated, the chief objective of the present quarantine is to slow the spread. There isn't enough equipment to treat many people. About 1/3 of the infected are asymptomatic but still contagious.

We've been idled in Ohio for a week. I'm getting caught up on house projects and starting back at models soon.

Stay healthy all.