Coronavirus Thread

[buffnut453]

The U.S. appears to have a higher count because it has a higher population (outside of China, who has masked their actual toll) but statistic-wise, it's lower than many nations with 107 deaths per million compared to nations like Belgium (445 deaths per million), Spain (417 deaths per million), Italy (376 deaths per million) and so on. In that respect, the U.S. ranks #13.

Bear in mind that the virus really took hold in the US a couple of weeks after it was already running rife through Europe...so let's compare the numbers in a few weeks, particularly if States start opening up without adequate precautions.

As to China, I would agree that they have been less than forthcoming. However, in many respects China had the easier problem to deal with because was the epicentre for the virus. Any infectious disease is easier to handle if it breaks out in just one location. Measures can be taken to contain it by preventing travel out of that one region. Other countries, including the US, had a much more challenging problem because it started in multiple locations simultaneously due to international travel.

For all the talk of the US having peaked, I fear it may be a false dawn. Even if deaths and infections have peaked, the death rate is still much higher than most other countries. If that continues for several weeks, then the deaths-per-million may well increase considerably.

 

[ThomasP]

Minnesota report, April 17
cases 2,071, recovered 1,066, hospitalized 518, deaths 111, tested [43,053]*
fatality rate 5.4%
mortality rate 19.5 per million
tests rate [7.6] per thousand*
*Test kits are still in short supply, however, the number is increasing dramatically. At the current time, processing capacity for test kits is also a significant problem. Tests are currently being used only for suspected COVID-19 cases and first responder/healthcare/medical personnel.

edit: numbers in [ ] corrected due to typo in the reported statistics - 45,053 corrected to 43,053 and 7.9 corrected to 7.6

 

[pgeno71]

I saw on the news that in the US the wants to 'restart society again'. Sounds a bit strange at a moment when they have the highest death toll by corona in the world. But I don't know about the hospital numbers. Is the amount of new patients per day going down?

It's not that wierd if you look at the geographic disparity of the pandemic. It is in all 50 states, yes, but with in the states the outbreaks are concentrated. Some areas and occupations that could be safely reopened on a limited basis using the necessary precautions will soon have to in order to limit the economic devastation. For example, in Michigan, the total number is third highest in the country, but half the counties in the state have zero to less that 10 reported cases after a month of stay-at-home. Outside of the Detroit/Flint corridor and Grand Rapids, the place is filled with little towns and is very rural. I live in a county with a quarter million people, we have 88 reported cases with 5 deaths. I know if we throw the doors off and open up eveything that the disease will spread and the numbers will go up, that's why it needs to be done cautiously, but it needs to be done or people will start losing their businesses and livelihoods.

 

[Crimea_River]

One thing that our forum members need to realize that is different from most of their home countries, save for Australia, is the sheer size of the American and Canadian landmasses. Because of this, there are regional differences that must be recognized. I'll speak for Canada because it's my home.

If you place Canada on a map of Europe, Vancouver would be in Lisbon and St John's would be east of Tehran. The situations in our country vary with geography as much as you'd expect the situations to differ regionally across Europe. Though there is a federal oversight that offers a more standardized approach than one would expect to see between nations, the fact remains that some regions on my country saw the outbreaks earlier than others so, while some are on the upswing, some are levelling off and may in fact be on the way down.

It's entirely appropriate, in my mind, to consider a phased restart of "normal life" by region in countries like mine whilst carefully controlling travel in and out of the regions that have seen the pandemic through. I in no way expect this to happen any time soon and do not agree with a "damn the torpedoes" approach to restarting too early. However, I do see it as entirely appropriate for regions within Canada to restart while others are still in lock down and they should be allowed to do so with the appropriate measures in place.

 

[fubar57]

Fresh update for my province 30 minutes ago, dependant on numbers continuing to going down of course

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/covid-19-bc-modelling-data-1.5535716

 

[buffnut453]

One thing that our forum members need to realize that is different from most of their home countries, save for Australia, is the sheer size of the American and Canadian landmasses. Because of this, there are regional differences that must be recognized. I'll speak for Canada because it's my home.

If you place Canada on a map of Europe, Vancouver would be in Lisbon and St John's would be east of Tehran. The situations in our country vary with geography as much as you'd expect the situations to differ regionally across Europe. Though there is a federal oversight that offers a more standardized approach than one would expect to see between nations, the fact remains that some regions on my country saw the outbreaks earlier than others so, while some are on the upswing, some are levelling off and may in fact be on the way down.

It's entirely appropriate, in my mind, to consider a phased restart of "normal life" by region in countries like mine whilst carefully controlling travel in and out of the regions that have seen the pandemic through. I in no way expect this to happen any time soon and do not agree with a "damn the torpedoes" approach to restarting too early. However, I do see it as entirely appropriate for regions within Canada to restart while others are still in lock down and they should be allowed to do so with the appropriate measures in place.

I fully comprehend the geography of the North American continent and entirely agree that different regions will require different approaches when it comes to easing lockdown measures. My concern is that public pressure to open things too quickly will result in renewed outbreaks.

The following story about Sioux City, SD, should be cautionary for anyone seeking to open everything immediately. Sioux City isn't a particularly big burg...and rapid outbreaks like the one in the article could easily overwhelm local healthcare resources if we're not careful:

The untold story behind America's biggest outbreak

 

[MiTasol]

This applies to so many people

 

[pbehn]

One thing that our forum members need to realize that is different from most of their home countries, save for Australia, is the sheer size of the American and Canadian landmasses. Because of this, there are regional differences that must be recognized. I'll speak for Canada because it's my home.

If you place Canada on a map of Europe, Vancouver would be in Lisbon and St John's would be east of Tehran. The situations in our country vary with geography as much as you'd expect the situations to differ regionally across Europe. Though there is a federal oversight that offers a more standardized approach than one would expect to see between nations, the fact remains that some regions on my country saw the outbreaks earlier than others so, while some are on the upswing, some are levelling off and may in fact be on the way down.

It's entirely appropriate, in my mind, to consider a phased restart of "normal life" by region in countries like mine whilst carefully controlling travel in and out of the regions that have seen the pandemic through. I in no way expect this to happen any time soon and do not agree with a "damn the torpedoes" approach to restarting too early. However, I do see it as entirely appropriate for regions within Canada to restart while others are still in lock down and they should be allowed to do so with the appropriate measures in place.

We have the same arguments from the opposite end of the idiocy spectrum. We have people (from London) arguing that the lockdown should be raised in London first, they ignore the obvious fact that they are not "regions" they are not separated from anywhere in any real sense, much more than half the UK population live within a days bicycle ride for any reasonably fit person.

 

[mikewint]

My state which is Arkansas (Population 3.018 million as of 2019) reports, as of 4/16

1,695 Number of people in Arkansas who have tested positive for COVID-19. 52.3% are female

37 Number of people in Arkansas who have died from COVID-19

92 Number of Arkansans currently hospitalized with COVID-19

23 Number of Arkansans with COVID-19 currently on a ventilator

116 Number of Arkansans with COVID-19 who are residents of a nursing home

593 Number of people in Arkansas who have recovered from COVID-19

21,055 Number of people in Arkansas who tested negative

My county which is Baxter (Population 41,932 as of 2019) has just FOUR (4) confirmed cases as of 4/16. Of course there is no way to measure asymptomatic cases or those who do not seek medical care.
On 3/31 there were 122 confirmed cases and that has risen to 1620 as of 4/16. The slope is almost linear but is rising as the days pass.
Our learned Gov Asa H has steadily refused to issue a "Stay-at-Home" order making us one of only seven states not issuing such an order AND he intends to begin lifting restrictions on May 4.

 

[TheMadPenguin]

ArcGIS Dashboards
World: 2.2M
USA: 700K
Florida: 25K
Bay County: 44
BUT we don't have any idea how many symptom-less positives have gone untested;
AND we don't know how many symptomatic cases just stayed home to endure because they didn't consider their case sufficiently severe, or thought it was likely something else than CCV;
AND we don't know how many Positive or Negative tests were false;

SO I'll just go fishing again.

 

[ThomasP]

Addition to the Minnesota report, April 17

About 1,000 people staged a protest outside the Minnesota governor's residence today. They were protesting the business shut-down effects of the 'social distancing' and 'shelter-in-place' orders. I was not there but - based on TV news and social media videos - almost none wore masks, and maybe 10%-15% made any attempt to follow social distancing guidelines. Anyone want to take bets on whether there is a sudden spike in COVID-19 cases - due to these individuals, and the people they infect, and the people they infect in turn infect, etc - over the next 2-3 weeks or so? It is also interesting that there were no elderly people in the videos. (This has nothing to do with politics, by the way. I understand their position. But WTF?!!!)

 

[MiTasol]

It will be interesting to see how many of those who participated have CV in two weeks time and how many got it during that protest. And if they still think it is a hoax.
The absence of older persons probably indicates that the older people are smarter and recognised this was a potential mass distribution event.

 

[rochie]

In a stampede to publish bad news stories the BBC did this.

BBC correction on Burberry coronavirus plea

the original story was their top headline on their website all day.

Correction hidden away down the bottom of the page.

Things are bad enough without the media making it worse

 

[Dinger]

In case anyone is struggling with finding clear guidance, for the sake of clarification, here are those lockdown rules, one more time:

1. You MUST NOT leave the house for any reason, but if you have a reason, you can leave the house.

2. Masks are useless at protecting you against the virus, but you may have to wear one because it can save lives, but they may not work, but they may be mandatory, but maybe not.

3. Shops are closed, except those shops that are open.

4. You must not go to work but you can get another job and go to work.

5. You should not go to the Doctor's or to the hospital unless you have to go there, unless you are too poorly to go there.

6. This virus can kill people, but don't be scared of it. It can only kill those people who are vulnerable or those people who are not vulnerable. It's possible to contain and control it, sometimes, except that sometimes it actually leads to a global disaster.

7. Gloves won't help, but they can still help so wear them sometimes, or not.

8. STAY HOME, but it's important to go out.

9. There is no shortage of groceries in supermarkets, but there are many things missing. Sometimes you won't need loo rolls but you should buy some just in case you need some.

10. The virus has no effect on children except those children it affects.

11. Animals are not affected, but there was a cat that tested positive in Belgium in February when no one had been tested, plus a few tigers here and there…

12. Stay 2 metres away from tigers (see point 11).

13. You will have many symptoms if you get the virus, but you can also get symptoms without getting the virus, get the virus without having any symptoms or be contagious without having symptoms, or be non-contagious with symptoms...it's a sort of lucky/unlucky dip.

14. To help protect yourself you should eat well and exercise, but eat whatever you have on hand as it's better not to go to the shops unless you need toilet roll or a fence panel.

15. It's important to get fresh air but don't go to parks but go for a walk. But don't sit down, except if you are old, but not for too long or if you are pregnant or if you're not old or pregnant but need to sit down. If you do sit down don't eat your picnic, unless you've had a long walk, which you are/aren't allowed to do if you're old or pregnant.

16. Don't visit old people but you have to take care of the old people and bring them food and medication.

17. If you are sick, you can go out when you are better but anyone else in your household can't go out when you are better unless they need to go out.

18. You can get restaurant food delivered to the house. These deliveries are safe. But groceries you bring back to your house have to be decontaminated outside for 3 hours including frozen pizza.

19. You can't see your older mother or grandmother, but they can take a taxi and meet an older taxi driver.

20. You are safe if you maintain the safe social distance when out but you can't go out with friends or strangers at the safe social distance.

21. The virus remains active on different surfaces for two hours ... or four hours...or six hours... I mean days, not hours. But it needs a damp environment. Or a cold environment that is warm and dry... in the air, as long as the air is not plastic.

22. Schools are closed so you need to home educate your children unless you can send them to school because you're not at home. If you are at home you can home educate your children using various portals and virtual classrooms unless you have poor internet, or more than one child and only one computer, or you are working from home. Baking cakes can be considered maths, science or art. If you are home educating you can include household chores within their education. If you are home educating you can start drinking at 10 am.

23. If you are not home educating children you can also start drinking at 10 am.

24. The number of corona related deaths will be announced daily but we don't know how many people are infected as they are only testing those who are almost dead to find out if that's what they will die of. The people who die of corona who aren't counted, won't or will be counted but maybe not.

25. We should stay in locked down until the virus stops infecting people but it will only stop infecting people if we all get infected so it's important we get infected and some don't get infected.

26. You can join your neighbours for a street party and turn your music up for an outside disco and your neighbours won't call the police. People in another street are allowed to call the police about your music whilst also having a party which you are allowed to call the police about.

27. No business will go down due to Coronavirus except those businesses that will go down due to Coronavirus.

Hope that makes things clearer for you

 

[TheMadPenguin]

In case anyone is struggling with finding clear guidance, for the sake of clarification, here are those lockdown rules, one more time:

1. You MUST NOT leave the house for any reason, but if you have a reason, you can leave the house.

2. Masks are useless at protecting you against the virus, but you may have to wear one because it can save lives, but they may not work, but they may be mandatory, but maybe not.

3. Shops are closed, except those shops that are open.

4. You must not go to work but you can get another job and go to work.

5. You should not go to the Doctor's or to the hospital unless you have to go there, unless you are too poorly to go there.

6. This virus can kill people, but don't be scared of it. It can only kill those people who are vulnerable or those people who are not vulnerable. It's possible to contain and control it, sometimes, except that sometimes it actually leads to a global disaster.

7. Gloves won't help, but they can still help so wear them sometimes, or not.

8. STAY HOME, but it's important to go out.

9. There is no shortage of groceries in supermarkets, but there are many things missing. Sometimes you won't need loo rolls but you should buy some just in case you need some.

10. The virus has no effect on children except those children it affects.

11. Animals are not affected, but there was a cat that tested positive in Belgium in February when no one had been tested, plus a few tigers here and there…

12. Stay 2 metres away from tigers (see point 11).

13. You will have many symptoms if you get the virus, but you can also get symptoms without getting the virus, get the virus without having any symptoms or be contagious without having symptoms, or be non-contagious with symptoms...it's a sort of lucky/unlucky dip.

14. To help protect yourself you should eat well and exercise, but eat whatever you have on hand as it's better not to go to the shops unless you need toilet roll or a fence panel.

15. It's important to get fresh air but don't go to parks but go for a walk. But don't sit down, except if you are old, but not for too long or if you are pregnant or if you're not old or pregnant but need to sit down. If you do sit down don't eat your picnic, unless you've had a long walk, which you are/aren't allowed to do if you're old or pregnant.

16. Don't visit old people but you have to take care of the old people and bring them food and medication.

17. If you are sick, you can go out when you are better but anyone else in your household can't go out when you are better unless they need to go out.

18. You can get restaurant food delivered to the house. These deliveries are safe. But groceries you bring back to your house have to be decontaminated outside for 3 hours including frozen pizza.

19. You can't see your older mother or grandmother, but they can take a taxi and meet an older taxi driver.

20. You are safe if you maintain the safe social distance when out but you can't go out with friends or strangers at the safe social distance.

21. The virus remains active on different surfaces for two hours ... or four hours...or six hours... I mean days, not hours. But it needs a damp environment. Or a cold environment that is warm and dry... in the air, as long as the air is not plastic.

22. Schools are closed so you need to home educate your children unless you can send them to school because you're not at home. If you are at home you can home educate your children using various portals and virtual classrooms unless you have poor internet, or more than one child and only one computer, or you are working from home. Baking cakes can be considered maths, science or art. If you are home educating you can include household chores within their education. If you are home educating you can start drinking at 10 am.

23. If you are not home educating children you can also start drinking at 10 am.

24. The number of corona related deaths will be announced daily but we don't know how many people are infected as they are only testing those who are almost dead to find out if that's what they will die of. The people who die of corona who aren't counted, won't or will be counted but maybe not.

25. We should stay in locked down until the virus stops infecting people but it will only stop infecting people if we all get infected so it's important we get infected and some don't get infected.

26. You can join your neighbours for a street party and turn your music up for an outside disco and your neighbours won't call the police. People in another street are allowed to call the police about your music whilst also having a party which you are allowed to call the police about.

27. No business will go down due to Coronavirus except those businesses that will go down due to Coronavirus.

Hope that makes things clearer for you

You cause me severe pain ... or maybe not.

 

[Vincenzo]

Italian report, 5 pm (CEST) 18th April
cases 175,925, +3,491, deaths 23,227, +482, recovered 44,927, +2,200, tests 1,305,833, +61,725
fatality rate 13.2%
mortality rate 385 per million
test rate 21.6 per thousand
positive rate 13.5%
test rate today 1.023 per million
positive rate today 5.7%

 

[fubar57]

 

[rochie]

View attachment 577933​

Yeah bit sick of celebrities, royalty and all round rich people telling me were all in this together l

 

[pbehn]

Yeah bit sick of celebrities, royalty and all round rich people telling me were all in this together l

Harry has a dog to walk you know, life long friend of the last two weeks.

 

[TheMadPenguin]

View attachment 577933​

Ummm ... lemme suggest that fireworks should be set off OUTSIDE?