Coronavirus Thread

[Staffeln Kommandant]

Agree w/ fubar57's posts among others along the same line. It never ceases to amaze me how a great portion of the human population lacks any critical thinking. This tendency is just aggravated by stupid following of all things on social media and the press that sees an income stream from drumming up fear. Hope these failures don't hurt the economy too much. Reminds me of the panic over the Y2K computer non-event event. Chicken Littles seem always with us no matter how science advances.

 

[gumbyk]

Agree w/ fubar57's posts among others along the same line. It never ceases to amaze me how a great portion of the human population lacks any critical thinking. This tendency is just aggravated by stupid following of all things on social media and the press that sees an income stream from drumming up fear. Hope these failures don't hurt the economy too much. Reminds me of the panic over the Y2K computer non-event event. Chicken Littles seem always with us no matter how science advances.

Y2K was a non-event specifically because critical systems were prepared for it. We still have plenty of date roll-over problems in computer systems, so it is a well-known problem that exists to this day.

As for Covid-19... A higher fatality rate than flu, more easily transmitted, and a more connected world. There have been separate reports of it jumping across species, besides the Hong Kong study, there's this story. And the long incubation period makes it harder to trace possible contacts.
It's definitely something to worry about, but not to panic about.

 

[michael rauls]

Now that we have had several isolated laboratories( cruz ships) to study this so to speak we can put a pretty accurate number on the fatality rate because finally we have an isolated environment where we know exactly how many people contracted Covid19 and how many unfortunately died as a result.
The number is .85. Slightly less than one in a hundred. When one takes into account that the population aboard cruz ships is on average much older than the general population the real number is likely somewhere between .25 and .50( an estamit on my part but I'd be willing to bet pretty close).
Viewed in a micro sense i.e. what if any individual contracts it it is no more worrisome than the flu. Maybe even less so than some of the more verilant strains of flu.
Viewed in a macro sense i.e. affect on humanity as a whole it is worthy of concern however because the greater contagiousness and longer incubation period during which there can be no symptoms yet the virus can be spread could result multiples more cases if it really gets going, which hopefully of course it won't.
Thats my take on it anyway.

 

[Zipper730]

My mother is an ICU/CCU nurse and dead

Sorry about that

all across country have passed beyond 2000 ... Just in Capital, Tehran, there are at least 600 confirmed dead by COVID-19.

Holy shit. The mortality rates seemed very high even by what was *LISTED* (900 total infected, 210 dead: That's 23-1/3%), and if the mortality rates aren't downrated in anyway, there might be a genetic variability that would make this more deadly to certain middle-eastern groups, than to Asians.

 

[michael rauls]

1) Never trust to any numbers / statics from officials or hospitals. My mother is an ICU/CCU nurse and dead , all across country have passed beyond 2000 ... Just in Capital, Tehran, there are at least 600 confirmed dead by COVID-19.

2) Iran's regime will never tells the truth, cuz people have no worth for them.

3) as I said, dead are over 2000 people.

4) for reliable sources, I can suggest you search Telegram , Instagram, Tweeter and other apps like them.

Really, really sorry to hear about your mother. Wish the best for the people of your country( and all of course). It's tragic they have been hit so hard by this. Hopefully it will subside soon.

 

[Staffeln Kommandant]

Y2K was a non-event specifically because critical systems were prepared for it. We still have plenty of date roll-over problems in computer systems, so it is a well-known problem that exists to this day.

As for Covid-19... A higher fatality rate than flu, more easily transmitted, and a more connected world. There have been separate reports of it jumping across species, besides the Hong Kong study, there's this story. And the long incubation period makes it harder to trace possible contacts.
It's definitely something to worry about, but not to panic about.

As to Y2K, the point is that "there was immense panic" but "while there was widespread outcry about the potential implications ... not much happened in actuality." Y2K Definition

Actually, percentage wise, flu and pneumonia have higher mortality. The deaths from COVID-19 relate to preexisting health problems. Most who contract the virus only have common cold symptoms. More than 80% of cases are classified as a "Mild disease from which a person can recover" while the death rate is 2% of cases. Coronaviruses: Symptoms, treatments, and variants

Your last line "It's definitely something to worry about, but not to panic about" is exactly my point. The danger is psychologically overreacting and the effect of this overreacting on the functioning of society including undue devotion to COVID-19 over other, continuing, problems, undue stress, and undue effect on the economy.

 

[gumbyk]

More than 80% of cases are classified as a "Mild disease from which a person can recover" while the death rate is 2% of cases. Coronaviruses: Symptoms, treatments, and variants

The 2% is a low estimate, as its hard to get a figure while the pandemic is in progress, as you don't know exactly how many people have it: Coronavirus Mortality Rate (COVID-19) - Worldometer

Mortality rate for influenza is less than 1%, also something complicated by other respiratory issues. But, yes, this virus does seem to disproportionately affect older people. Doesn't help to say that 'it only affects old people, so why should I worry?'

 

[ARTESH]

Sorry about that
Holy shit. The mortality rates seemed very high even by what was *LISTED* (900 total infected, 210 dead: That's 23-1/3%), and if the mortality rates aren't downrated in anyway, there might be a genetic variability that would make this more deadly to certain middle-eastern groups, than to Asians.

Well, I believe a great part of these so called dead are Political acitivitists! A well planed and executed cleansing. No one would suspects anything!!! Believe it or not! Iran's regime has a long history to do such things. Just have a look at history and you will find enough examples.

 

[ARTESH]

Really, really sorry to hear about your mother. Wish the best for the people of your country( and all of course). It's tragic they have been hit so hard by this. Hopefully it will subside soon.

We have had experienced worst since 41 years ago!

 

[pbehn]

Well, I believe a great part of these so called dead are Political acitivitists! A well planed and executed cleansing. No one would suspects anything!!! Believe it or not! Iran's regime has a long history to do such things. Just have a look at history and you will find enough examples.

I suspected that when one of the first to die was a minister for health and up to a week ago 25% of those confirmed dead were politicians.

 

[stona]

4) for reliable sources, I can suggest you search Telegram , Instagram, Tweeter and other apps like them.

Those are absolutely NOT reliable sources. They have no access to original data or statistics. All they can do is express opinions based on the LIMITED information that certain people have. It's like asking a bombardier in a B-17 to provide an assessment of the results of Operation Argument, because he was there.

If the government is not treating its data responsibly then there are NO reliable statistics from Iran and no conclusions can be drawn.

 

[ARTESH]

Those are absolutely NOT reliable sources. They have no access to original data or statistics. All they can do is express opinions based on the LIMITED information that certain people have. It's like asking a bombardier in a B-17 to provide an assessment of the results of Operation Argument, because he was there.

If the government is not treating its data responsibly then there are NO reliable statistics from Iran and no conclusions can be drawn.

I know that, but also I meant that Cyberspace is much more accurate than regime. At least you can search for videos / photos of dead, at least a part of them.

According to Iran's regime, Iranian army did nothing during Iran Iraq War!!! But can some non trained light equipped brain washed beard rebels (Basij / Sepah militias) stand against an army equipped to teeth and well trained? Without Naval / Aviation / Artillery / Engineering / Medical / Intelligence / etc... support???
Of course, No. But according to regime's ideology, they can!!! Because they are Muslim and god will back them!

Iran's regime is based on religious ideology, so religion, in here, Islam, is the most important thing, nothing else is even worth to think / talk about it. If relates to Islam, it's important, otherwise, F that. This is basic of Iran's regime ideology.

If you search Iranian sites for Airforce pilots, you will just encounter a few names! But if you search in Instagram / Facebook, you will find even more!!!

 

[Zipper730]

Well, I believe a great part of these so called dead are Political acitivitists!

So, the high death toll has nothing to do with genetic variables?

 

[ARTESH]

So, the high death toll has nothing to do with genetic variables?

Not sure about this! But 100% sure for that!
Soon or late, truth will be revealed!

 

[XBe02Drvr]

So, the high death toll has nothing to do with genetic variables?

Sounds like he's implying targeted medically assisted political assassination. Nasty stuff.

 

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

Lets please keep this discussion related only to the Corona Virus.

 

[Crimea_River]

Sorry about that
Holy shit. The mortality rates seemed very high even by what was *LISTED* (900 total infected, 210 dead: That's 23-1/3%), and if the mortality rates aren't downrated in anyway, there might be a genetic variability that would make this more deadly to certain middle-eastern groups, than to Asians.

You are doing math and drawing conclusions based on unreliable numbers. Please stop it.

 

[mikewint]

From NBC News - 20/20 hindsight!!

HOUSTON — Dr. Peter Hotez says he made the pitch to anyone who would listen. After years of research, his team of scientists in Texas had helped develop a vaccine to protect against a deadly strain of coronavirus. Now they needed money to begin testing it in humans.

But this was 2016. More than a decade had passed since the viral disease known as severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS, had spread through China, killing more than 770 people. That disease, an earlier coronavirus similar to the one now sweeping the globe, was a distant memory by the time Hotez and his team sought funding to test whether their vaccine would work in humans.

"We tried like heck to see if we could get investors or grants to move this into the clinic," said Hotez, co-director of the Center for Vaccine Development at Texas Children's Hospital and dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at the Baylor College of Medicine in Houston. "But we just could not generate much interest."
https://www.nbcnews.com/nightly-new...ret-stockpile-of-medical-supplies-80026693725
That was a big missed opportunity, according to Hotez and other vaccine scientists, who argue that SARS, and the Middle East respiratory syndrome, or MERS, of 2012, should have triggered major federal and global investments to develop vaccines in anticipation of future epidemics.

Instead, the SARS vaccine that Hotez's team created in collaboration with scientists at the University of Texas Medical Branch at Galveston is sitting in a freezer, no closer to commercial production than it was four years ago.

"We could have had this ready to go and been testing the vaccine's efficacy at the start of this new outbreak in China," said Hotez, who believes the vaccine could provide cross-protection against the new coronavirus, which causes a respiratory disease known as COVID-19. "There is a problem with the ecosystem in vaccine development, and we've got to fix this."
Hotez took that message to Congress on Thursday while testifying before the House Committee on Science, Space and Technology. He argued that the new coronavirus should trigger changes in the way the government funds vaccine development.

"It's tragic that we won't have a vaccine ready for this epidemic," Hotez wrote in prepared remarks. "Practically speaking, we'll be fighting these outbreaks with one hand tied behind our backs."

As of Friday, there had been more than 100,000 confirmed coronavirus cases globally and at least 3,338 deaths. Public health officials are concerned that the virus, which can lead to respiratory failure brought on by pneumonia, will spread widely in the U.S. and last beyond this year — much like the seasonal flu, but more severe and potentially deadlier.

In response, pharmaceutical companies, university researchers and the federal government have been rushing to develop a vaccine. In addition to the official government effort led by the National Institutes of Health, several drugmakers are also scrambling to develop a vaccine that can be tested in humans in the coming months. But even under the rosiest of projections, one won't be ready for more than a year, government officials say.

"I'm cautiously optimistic that we will get a vaccine," Dr. Anthony Fauci, the National Institutes of Health's director for infectious diseases, said in an interview this week. "The thing that's sobering is that it's not a vaccine we're going to have next month, so we're going to have to tough it out through this evolution."

 

[pbehn]

British supermarkets are running short of pasta and toilet rolls, no one knows why. Yorkshire has re classified the risk level from "you'll need your big coat" to "put the kettle on"

 

[Crimea_River]

British supermarkets are running short of pasta and toilet rolls, no one knows why. ...

I do. They're making one of these recipes: The 10 best recipes for pasta with toilet paper