Coronavirus Thread

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TheMadPenguin said:
Some perspective (which I lack rather frequently) 1 million infections is 1/7800 of the world population, and 1/331 (.03%) of the US population (not including penguins, who don't matter).
US deaths so far is less than deaths from "regular flu" over the same time period. (rough guesstimate is 40,000 dead of "regular flu" since 1 Oct 2019 vs 5850 deaths from CCV)
I wonder what would happen if we responded to "regular flu" this way.
Click to expand...

For perspective, the number of Covid 19 deaths in the US quadrupled in one week.

Let's say that rate is slowed by social distancing measures to doubling in a week.
Currently the number of deaths in the US is ~6,000.
1 week: ~12,000
2 weeks: ~24,000
3 weeks: ~48,000
4 weeks: ~96,000

Also note that the rate of fatalities per confirmed cases has changed - for a while it was less than 1%, which was of comfort to many, but now it stands at 2.5%. So you have the double effect of cases increasing and the fatality rate increasing.
 
TheMadPenguin said:
Some perspective (which I lack rather frequently) 1 million infections is 1/7800 of the world population, and 1/331 (.03%) of the US population (not including penguins, who don't matter).
US deaths so far is less than deaths from "regular flu" over the same time period. (rough guesstimate is 40,000 dead of "regular flu" since 1 Oct 2019 vs 5850 deaths from CCV)
I wonder what would happen if we responded to "regular flu" this way.
Click to expand...

That's certainly one perspective. Here's another from a doctor in NYC. Some key take-aways:

- On average, the hospital makes one crash-cart call (due to cardiac arrest) every week. This doctor heard 9 crash-cart calls in one 12-hour shift (and all 9 patients died).

- The hospital has beds for 283 patients but currently is treating in excess of 500.

- The hospital has been given double the number of ventilators that it originally had - but they are already being fully utilised and they need more.

- "The most anxiety I have is around ventilator allocation. Seeing people die is not the issue. We're trained to deal with death. Nor is it the volume of people dying. The issue is giving up on people we wouldn't normally give up on."

- A patient was brought in from an old people's home, already on a ventilator. All the doctor could see before her was the ventilator - not the patient. "When he came in we were so desperate for vents, all I wanted to do was get the ventilator off him. I wanted to get that vent off him to allow it to go to someone else."

- Doctors are playing God.

And all of the above are AFTER social distancing and a city-wide lockdown were put in place. You ask what it would be like if we treated COVID-19 just like the flu? I think we'd be in a world of hurt.

The total numbers you cite are not showing the whole picture, and your "same time period" is nonsense. Flu season in the US lasts from late-fall thru the spring, which is 4-5 months. The COVID-19 cases in the US have happened in THREE WEEKS! It's a tsunami...ontop of the normal cases our healthcare professionals have to deal with.

I don't know how many times people have to say this....COVID-19 IS NOT THE FLU. It's far more infectious, and it's overloading our healthcare services. That's the key problem here.
 
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I am sure most of you would have seen the conversion in the UK of the O2 arena into a 4,000 bed hospital which has started taking patients after nine days since the start of the build. What I have for some reason just realised, is that it isn't just a 4,000 bed hospital, it's a 4000 bed intensive care hospital. Every bed has its own Oxygen, ventilator, ECG, and other equipment, even blanket warmers, and I have to say I find that seriously impressive.
When you see how desperate some hospitals are around the world for Ventilators and other often basic PPE equipment, even in the most advanced countries, it shows that when push comes to shove the UK can still get things done.

One word about the danger of comparing this to anything else. As I understand it some people are saying that ordinary flu kills more people than this virus. Just remember that the USA will be lucky, very lucky to get away with less than 150,000 deaths and most experts are giving numbers well in excess of 200,000 for the USA alone. A highly transmittable virus with no cure, no treatment and a vaccine that is at best 12 months away with no guarantee that it will be effective for everyone, or will be without side effects.
 
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And why doesn't the US have the equipment and testing abilities this thing calls for?
1) They're expensive.
2) There's been no demonstrated need, til now.
3) THERE'S NOT ENOUGH PROFIT IN IT!

Just like military budgets in "peace" time.
 
The second positive in my town die, so we have 100% of fatality rate
i've meet this man, around 80 years old, the 10th March, this is the 24th day so i suppose that if take from him i'm symptomless or i don't get it
 
XBe02Drvr said:
And why doesn't the US have the equipment and testing abilities this thing calls for?
1) They're expensive.
2) There's been no demonstrated need, til now.
3) THERE'S NOT ENOUGH PROFIT IN IT!

Just like military budgets in "peace" time.
Click to expand...
And I would expect it doesn't get votes.........................
 
F4913CE2-3B02-407D-B159-5542BC7D3467.jpeg
 
XBe02Drvr said:
And why doesn't the US have the equipment and testing abilities this thing calls for?
1) They're expensive.
2) There's been no demonstrated need, til now.
3) THERE'S NOT ENOUGH PROFIT IN IT!

Just like military budgets in "peace" time.
Click to expand...

Just heard that the US military will delivering 200,000 masks to NYC. To a warehouse - belonging to a commercial distributor. Who is free to sell to anyone they like, including foreign countries.
 
I've noticed that a particularly well known on-line source of goods and gadgets seems to be getting on the 'band wagon' with face masks.
Those types normally found in hardware stores for a couple of Pounds, are offered for many times that amount - bl**dy bandits !
 
XBe02Drvr said:
Like it says in Sid's video, human brains are trained to think linearly; pandemics spread exponentially. That's kind of hard for those of us (and ALL of the media) in the non-STEM population to wrap our heads around.
Click to expand...
It all depends on the "R" number. R=re infection rate. If one person infects less than 1 person on average then the infection slowly goes away. If 1 person infects 1 other it remains the same but if on average he infects two or more it mushrooms massively.
 
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