Coronavirus Thread

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<political element warning>
"It's simply a snowball rolling downhill - the previous "pandemics" (swine flu, bird flu, mad cow disease, West Nile virus, Ebola, et al) did not have rampant social media and a rabid media pouring gasoline on the flames... "

Nations are working against the plague.
The Media is working for different objectives.

Also: Two of the hardest-hit nations (China, Iran) cannot be trusted to count the days in a week, let alone COVID deaths. My cynicism wonders how many political killings are blamed on the virus as a handy "camo of opportunity". For China, Double Lung Transplant Donors may be counted as COVID deaths.

</political element warning>

This plague does merit extra attention for the high communicability and elevated lethality.
I don't have numbers for the former, but the latter is about 30 times the "normal common influenza" (3% vs .1%).

Does anybody have numbers on the pre-symptom contagion window? How long can I pass this to my friends, neighbors, and everybody at WalMart before I show symptoms?
 
Im certainly no expert so take with grain of salt but I don't think the fatality rate is anywhere near 2 or 3%. That number is of known tested cases but the vast majority of cases, like 80%, are mild and never get tested. A little division and you get something less than .50%.
That cruise ship had about 600 inflected people and two of them died, which would iindeed be about 3% but cruise ship clientele is much, much older than society as a whole. If you look at the incidence curve from young to old and asume the average age on the ship was 75 then you again get at about .50 %.
Not trying to downplay it. It is indeed worthy of concern. Just trying to take a fact based( as best I know them) look at this.
If I were around 70 or older with underlying chronic health concerns I would probably not be going out in public anymore than necessary( but that would be warranted with any bad flu strain), just to be on the safe side but the response overall seems to me to be a bit overdone to me.
 
Arkansas now has one official case of Corona in Pine Bluff a city of +42,000 which is located down in south central Arkansas about +250 miles from me. Test results are still pending but they seem pretty positive that it is positive and the Gov declared a Public Health Emergency for the state. The infected person had traveled out of the state but that all they are saying for now

Michael Osterholm, director of the University of Minnesota's Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy has stated "In SARS patients, viral shedding peaked about seven to 10 days into the illness, as the infection spread from the upper respiratory tract into deep lung tissue. In seven patients with COVID-19, the disease caused by the new virus, "peak concentrations were reached before Day 5 and were more than 1,000 times higher" than those seen in SARS patients", the authors wrote.

While the overall mortality rate may be relatively low the mortality rate rises dramatically in the older population. According to the US Census there are 34,991,753 people in the US age 65 or older. The death rate in the elderly varies with age but is 8% to 15%. So that mean that on average 2,799,340 to 5,248,763 fatalities in the US. Assuming that many of these will seek medical treatment before dying the medical facilities will crash long before the peak is reached. In addition consider all those who need medical attention for non-COVID reasons AND those under 65 with COVID who develop the serious form who then need hospital care
From: A paper by the Chinese CCDC released on Feb. 17, which is based on 72,314 confirmed, suspected, and asymptomatic cases of COVID-19 in China as of Feb. 11, and was published in the Chinese Journal of Epidemiology

AGE
DEATH RATE
confirmed cases
DEATH RATE
all cases​
80+ years old
14.9%
​
70-79 years old
8.0%​
60-69 years old
3.6%​
50-59 years old
1.3%​
40-49 years old
0.4%​
30-39 years old
0.2%​
20-29 years old
0.2%​
10-19 years old
0.2%
0-9 years old
no fatalities​
 
GrauGeist said:
Yeah, but I don't get it - regular Flu strains kill roughly half a million people worldwide every year, yet I don't see anyone losing their shit over that issue...
Click to expand...
It is because it is new to everyone. Like when people from the west met indigenous tribes in the Americas and killed half of them by giving them the flu and other diseases.
 
For as up-to-the-minute data as there is, got to the Johns- Hopkins maintained website; Operations Dashboard for ArcGIS

Currently, 127,000+ or 0.0017% of the world's population has been confirmed as infected with COVID-19.
Outside of China/Italy/Iran there have been 285 deaths. There have been 4,700+ total deaths world wide including China/Italy/Iran.
68,000+ have recovered.
The virus seems to have a 2 week incubation period.
The highest risk for dying is for older patients and those with pre-existing underlying medical problems.

For perspective, the CDC says this season there have been at least 34 million influenza illnesses, 350,000+ hospitalizations and 20,000+ deaths from flu.
Only about 40% of the population gets the flu vaccine.
Follow influenza statistics here; Weekly U.S. Influenza Surveillance Report (FluView)

Following this advice can stop the spread of influenza, COVID-19, and many other diseases; https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pdf/freeresources/updated/everyday-preventive-actions-8.5x11.pdf

Be prudent and choose perspective over panic. Bad decisions spring from panic.

Take the above for what it is worth. I've been a Respiratory Therapist since 1984, spent 5 years as ICU coordinator at a Level 1 Trauma Center, and have been involved in various research trials such as pulmonary surfactant therapy, high frequency jet ventilation, high frequency oscillation ventilation, and partial liquid ventilation to name a few. I currently work in healthcare accreditation.
 
We've got the first confirmed corona infection here in Dordrecht. Here at the moment mortality seems to be around 1% in the Netherlands. In Italy it looks much worse. More than 1000 fatalities already.

But the biggest problem and why governments take drastic action is that the medical care cannot handle the flow of patients. That's what is happening now in Italy. The tactic is here now to delay the spreading so we won't get a peak, but a gradual rise in infections. This way the hospitals can better handle the flow and less patients will have to die.
 
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Marcel said:
Except for you. Somehow the Americans in their infinite wisdom think they should still allow you crazy bunch. No idea where they got that idea from...
Click to expand...
The British passport is a pathway to many abilities some consider to be unnatural.

I apologize as I read the headlines and it clearly stated Europeans, Which I believed I was once. But no more.

Brexit saves the day.
 
I was just about to post something along htose lines. Doctors in Italy aer already having to decide who to treat and who not to...

Italians On Reddit Are Describing What It's Like To Live Under The Coronavirus Lockdown
 
Under the usual nuclear war scenario, the elderly are left to die and the young'uns get the Medicare.

Have to back a winning horse.

So it begins.
 
I was informed at work today that as I am over 60 and diabetic should it get much worse that I am to work from home. I admit to having mixed views on that but at least people are looking ahead and not making knee jerk responses
 
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