Coronavirus Thread

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Influenza in epidemic form made its appearance in the army camps of the United States during March, 1918.... Influenza became epidemic in Spain about the middle of May and in other countries received the name "Spanish influenza" which is not more applicable than the designation "Russian influenza" often applied to the disease during the pandemic of 1889–90.

It seems that even in 1921 people recognised that it shouldn't have been termed 'Spanish Flu"

from: The Project Gutenberg eBook of Epidemic Respiratory Disease, by Eugene L. Opie


oh, and I'll have a Glenlivet Nadurra thanks...
 
I have no real issue with using the geographic origin in the name of the disease. However, using the name of a country implies to some, that the people of that country are somehow complicit in the outbreak. And, once again, the origin of a virus has very little bearing on how we get through a Pandemic.

Here in the United States, there has been a substantial increase in hate crimes and hate speech perpetrated against people of Asian decent in the last few months. I have also seen and heard some of my fellow citizens ask if they could contract Covid-19 from Chinese food...

Unfortunately, in this day and age words do matter... Not for the right reason, but they matter nonetheless.
 
In his tweet he quotes an economist, who appears to have no medical background. This is the first I have heard that putting people in quarantine/lockdown was not effective.

Health officials in countries with around the world, with governments of all types, have instituted lockdowns, based on science. I am going to assume for the moment that they have a better understanding of public health than a newspaper reporter and an economist.

To be fair, I think economists have difficulty with economics, let alone medicine.

And when was the last time when a "reporter" reported anything? These days all they seem to produce is opinion, so maybe their profession should be changed to "opinionator".
 
The National Review?

lol

It is a politically slanted conservative mouth peace. It's on the same level as CNN, Breitbart, Fox News and Huffpost for lack reliability due to its slanted bias.

The National Review is a bias publication, but the article contained about 30 links to actual studies on the topic. A much better example of useful journalism than just another news articles that skews facts or expresses hypocritical opinions. I will channel my inner Rod Sterling here but ... picture, if you will, a society were people research topics and weigh information and data from multiple and contradictory sources and arguments to reach there own conclusions rather than following the lead of some talking head with a political agenda to push or cower to the current radical chic.
 
To expand on this, and give some perspective:

Tasmania, population ~537k, 226 cases, 13 deaths., 0 active cases

Closest US states in terms of population are Wyoming and Vermont.
Wyoming, (~579k pop) 1,179 cases, 20 deaths, 263 active cases
Vermont, (~623k pop), 1,147 case, 56 deaths, 171 active cases

Neither Wyoming or Vermont have cities the size of Greater Hobart (~240k) or Launceston (~87k). The disease spreads most easily in more populated areas.

And, due to the failure of the NSW government to quarantine the Ruby Princess cruise ship passengers most of the Tassie cases came from passengers on that ship that were told they did not need to quarantine or take any other precautions.

Had the NSW government health department been run by competent persons the Tassie infection and death toll would have been much much much lower.

If Chinese figures are to be believed (in most things I think they are full of ****) locking down Wuhan prevented the rest of China being infected until they allowed returning travelers into Beijing.

Quarantine works

Or to look at it a different way

What two countries have the poorest lockdown - Brazil and the USA

What two countries have the highest per capita death toll - Brazil and the USA

Quarantine works
 
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The National Review is a bias publication, but the article contained about 30 links to actual studies on the topic. A much better example of useful journalism than just another news articles that skews facts or expresses hypocritical opinions. I will channel my inner Rod Sterling here but ... picture, if you will, a society were people research topics and weigh information and data from multiple and contradictory sources and arguments to reach there own conclusions rather than following the lead of some talking head with a political agenda to push or cower to the current radical chic.

We will agree to disagree. Anyone can pick and choose studies that agree with their bias. Unless it is an independent study with no bias, it must be taken with a grain of salt.

The same can be said for any "journalistic" article that comes from a slanted source that only panders to its viewers preconceived beliefs such as the National Review.
 
We will agree to disagree. Anyone can pick and choose studies that agree with their bias. Unless it is an independent study with no bias, it must be taken with a grain of salt.

I have yet to meet the human being without bias... Isn't that part of the Human condition?

Although I am no fan of the National Review, even a broken clock is correct twice a day.

No side, Right or Left, Conservative or Liberal, has a monopoly on good or bad ideas.
 
I hate to say it but in the present political climate in multiple countries an independent study and independent peer review are !@#$%^&* near impossible to find.

They can be found, people just have to put their bias aside and actually look for them.

It's why I laugh on facebook every time I read somebody post some conspiracy theory BS and say they "researched" it.
 
The National Review is a bias publication, but the article contained about 30 links to actual studies on the topic. A much better example of useful journalism than just another news articles that skews facts or expresses hypocritical opinions. I will channel my inner Rod Sterling here but ... picture, if you will, a society were people research topics and weigh information and data from multiple and contradictory sources and arguments to reach there own conclusions rather than following the lead of some talking head with a political agenda to push or cower to the current radical chic.

One of the links that support the idea that lockdown was ineffective:

"Do Lockdowns Work? A Counterfactual for Sweden." This study compares Sweden with a "synthetic" version of Sweden, a mix of other countries that had similar trends pre-lockdown: 39 percent Netherlands, 26 percent Denmark, 19 percent Finland, 15 percent Norway, and 1 percent Portugal. The upshot is that the real Sweden had no more deaths than the fake Sweden. The real Sweden saw a lot of voluntary social distancing, but its mobility rates didn't fall quite as much as the fake Sweden's did.

Let us look at Sweden:
Data from: Coronavirus Update (Live): 9,044,563 Cases and 470,665 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

Coronavirus Cases: 56,043 (Oz: 7,461; NZ: 1,511)
Active Cases: N/A (Oz: 463; NZ 7*)
Deaths: 5,053 (Oz: 102; NZ: 22)
Cases/1m population: 5,550 (Oz: 293; NZ: 302)
Deaths/1m populations: 500 (Oz: 4; NZ: 4)

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Note that Sweden has ~40% of Australia's population and yet some days the number of deaths from Covid 19 exceed the total from Australia.
And Sweden has ~2 times the population of New Zealand, yet on some days the deaths exceed 5 times the total number of deaths in New Zealand.

I don't think Sweden is a good example against the efficacy of lockdown.


Other examples:
"Full Lockdown Policies in Western Europe Countries Have No Evident Impacts on the COVID-19 Epidemic." This one looks at "full lockdown strategies applied in Italy, France, Spain and United Kingdom" and finds "no evidence of any discontinuity in the growth rate, doubling time, and reproduction number trends."

Not sure these countries are the best examples of lockdown, since all seem to have been quite late in acting, well after the virus took hold. The UK even held the policy, initially, of letting the virus spread.


Finally, Carl Quintanilla of CNBC recently circulated an analysis from JPMorgan pointing out that the states that have reopened haven't seen the virus take off. This could imply that the lockdowns never did anything, that these states' replacement policies were adequate, or simply that a spike is still to come.

That report may have been premature, as several states are no experiencing record numbers.

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And I believe that these two states never really did the lock down.

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The trends seem pretty clear.


* New Zealand had 0 active cases until they imported a couple.
 

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I think anyone arguing that lockdown is not efficient is not thinking clearly.
I think a much more interesting debate is how strict this lockdown has to be. So at what point do extra measurements stop being significant.
For instance The Netherlands and Belgium are demographically quite similar. The pandemic reached these countries almost simultaneously. While the Belgians has a very strict lockdown, we had slightly less so. Still in both countries the curve seems to be the same. The number of ICU patients started to decline at about the same moment with the same rate. Based on that, admittedly single, example, one could argue that the extra measures taken by the Belgians were not significant. One could argue that the NL did it slightly better as the little bit more freedom lessened the mental burden for the population.
On the other hand, both countries fared better than Brazil, so both lockdowns seem to be more efficient than doing nothing.

Admittedly this is pure anecdotal evidence, so maybe these observations should be taken with a grain of salt.

One remark about the efficiency of the New Zealand lockdown is that NZ are islands in the middle of a big ocean, while European countries are not. So more has to be considered when comparing countries at how well they did.
 
I think anyone arguing that lockdown is not efficient is not thinking clearly.
I think a much more interesting debate is how strict this lockdown has to be. So at what point do extra measurements stop being significant.
For instance The Netherlands and Belgium are demographically quite similar. The pandemic reached these countries almost simultaneously. While the Belgians has a very strict lockdown, we had slightly less so. Still in both countries the curve seems to be the same. The number of ICU patients started to decline at about the same moment with the same rate. Based on that, admittedly single, example, one could argue that the extra measures taken by the Belgians were not significant. One could argue that the NL did it slightly better as the little bit more freedom lessened the mental burden for the population.
On the other hand, both countries fared better than Brazil, so both lockdowns seem to be more efficient than doing nothing.

Admittedly this is pure anecdotal evidence, so maybe these observations should be taken with a grain of salt.

One remark about the efficiency of the New Zealand lockdown is that NZ are islands in the middle of a big ocean, while European countries are not. So more has to be considered when comparing countries at how well they did.

Nothing to disagree with here in my opinion. Well said, and I agree.
 
Today's figures from the WHO show that the two countries with the least effective lockdowns set new records today. Think how bad it would be if the whole US was as bad as states like Florida. And how much lower it would be if these "its only a flu" states had locked down like NY did.

To quote
The World Health Organization (WHO) has reported the largest single-day increase in coronavirus cases since the start of the pandemic, with more than 183,000 new cases detected in the past 24 hours.
The UN health agency said Brazil led the way with 54,771 cases tallied, while the US was next at 36,617.
 
Since we're all indulging in some alcoholic libations, I'll have some spiced rum please....

There's been a long while since Sweden was a pioneering country in anything....
There's a chance when it comes to our government though, which more often than not, takes stupid to a new level....with the media being the good little....well, you know, that's pioneering, right? 😉😆😂
You can always ask my parents what they think about the Clown Academy, you'll be embarrassed with their use of language! Since they're not members, the mods here would put me on time out, for their crime! 😉😆😂

As for the different names of the virus, I've got no problems calling it C-19, Co Virus, Ch Virus or W Virus, neither am I blaming certain parties for it, except those that are actually responsible for this, I'm more level headed than that, unfortunately....some people need to be rebooted, reset for their, again....stupidity, I mean....seriously!?

Is it just me who wonder, is progressive just a posh name for stupid sometimes? 🤨🤔😉😆😂

Man, I need a massive BBQ....😉🤤
 
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