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What do you mean? That I should NOT have passed the link to read what is said by Dr.s? I haven't said to anybody to take anything. Let's please take a deep breath, that's as far as I go in ministering to peoples' symptoms.See how that works? Now it a person's Dr. tells them to take it at a specific dosage, said person should do so. Not when Joe Smith on Aviation Forum says to.
What do you mean? That I should NOT have passed the link to read what is said by Dr.s? I haven't said to anybody to take anything. Let's please take a deep breath, that's as far as I go in ministering to peoples' symptoms.
Gotchya. Thanks. Any news from Dr. Gnomey since Yesterday?No, sorry, my post was quoting yours, but not directed at you. I should have been more specific.
It was a general statement related to a conversation that was part of this thread earlier.
Gotchya. Thanks. Any news from Dr. Gnomey since Yesterday?
This video nicely summarises why we are worried. This coronavirus causes such a profound hypoxia (lack of oxygen) that the only way to manage severe cases is mechanical ventilation and the estimates are around 5-10% of cases will need it. Of these on average 50% will die. Now that's around 2.5-5% of currently ~800,000 cases which is 20-40,000 people so far have died (which roughly correlates with stated figures by all the countries). Now bear in mind there's probably double if not more actual cases around given lack of testing and many more who've died with undiagnosed disease so the numbers are likely higher for both.Informative, very short, Youtube video from a UK doctor. He talks through some of the early statistics recently released by both the UK and EU healthcare authorities. The Video was posted on 30th March.
Except all the medical experts disagree with you. They repeatedly are saying this is nothing like the flu. They are saying it spreads easier, that since it is a novel virus we have no resistance to it (unlike the flu), and that the fatality rate is higher than flu.
People like Dr. Fauci (I get it, he is the big bad man now because he doesn't bow down to others and repeat what they are supposed to say like a good lil minion), have stated that up 200,000 Americans will die from the virus this year if we do start taking this serious.
Fauci: Coronavirus could hit millions; Trump considers guidelines
Look I get it. I too thought this was nothing but another flu type event. The panic and the hoarding need to stop. People simply need to stay home and stop being vectors for the virus. Nut just because whatever flavor of news media you enjoy, or whatever flavor or leadership you care for disagrees with it for whatever reason that may be, its not the flu, and it needs to be taken serious.
Our medical professionals out there are telling us they are about to break. Why is it so hard to believe them? Once they break, death rates will rise because the people cannot be helped because the resources are not there.Gnomey is that an inaccurate thing to say?
This is essentially what I posted in the sticky thread in announcements. It's covers why we are worried by it as I've further detailed above.AIUI anybody who gets the flu didn't have immunity to that strain.
YES I think the Chinese Coronavirus AND "COVID-19" are overhyped, possibly for political ambitions; nevertheless this plague worries me on a few points:
1: Novelty: Influenza is all over the world. People talk about "flu season", but "flu season" in the world is like "Vodka Season" in Russia. (starts 1/1, runs to end of year). COVID-19 started in ONE point, and is world-wide now. In the next years, when Chinese Coronavirus (CCV) is not novel, it'll start in multiple places like Flu does, with slightly different strains here vs there. There will be vaccines for both, they will have varying effectiveness. This is a bit scary in its own right.
2: Communicability: CCV is much more efficient at propagating to new hosts than Influenza is. R-Nought for flu is like 1.3, for CCV is like 3. The effect of this is that in the time it takes influenza to go from 1 person to 14, CCV goes from 1 to 59,000. In the coming years, when there are multiple strains of CCV erupting from multiple locations, this could be quite damaging to nations and economies.
3: Lethality: Influenza appears to be lethal in .1% of cases, CCV appears to be lethal in 3% of cases averaged out. We don't really know this because China lies about its case load, Italy has some unusual characteristics (advanced age of society, greater incidence of underlying lung problems from smoking, intense import of infections from China to textile industries in Lombard region, etc), and the disease is too damned new to really boil the lethality down as we have with Influenza.
4: Virulence: the 1918-1920 Influenza plague could kill in a few hours. Modern Influenza kills (generally) in a few days. CCV kills rapidly, but it is too new to be certain if it is a few hours, a few handfuls of hours, or a few days. Current impression: if it kills it does so quickly, in hours.
5: Repeatability (I got it once but I'll get it again): Too little is known here for me to guess. Influenza mutates so rapidly that if you get this year's version, you'll be immune next year just from having it this year. However, next year will bring you at least one "new" strain you're not immune to. With CCV, it's too new to tell.
6: Side effects: Permanent lung damage? More susceptible in the future? Dunno.
I don't want to hype for panic's sake, but the enemy is deadly, and we don't have much to use against it.
Gnomey, please correct my Layman's Misunderstandings if you would please.
This has just been expressed in mathematics by the CSO in UK. To reduce the number of infected people the only way is to ensure each infected person infects less than one other. The only way to do this is to reduce "social" contact of the mass of the population to almost zero because there are some like health workers, police and many in required jobs who cant avoid coming into contact with others.Social distancing effective is no group, you can only group with that living in your home,
Subtract the number of urns "filled and given to families" the same month last year (3 numbers for Jan, Feb, & March) for the city Wuhan, the province Hubei, and China, and you might have a good indicator to Wuhan/Hubei/China COVID-19 deaths.Researchers checked the number of cremation urns being returned to families.
It is perfectly understandable that such things have been kept secret. Today I had a member of the press that has reported that CV-19 tests are between 30 and 60% accurate AND has been told that an inaccurate test is more dangerous than no test DEMANDING to know when we will do "more tests" they don't say what tests and on whom they just want 60 million tests a day and if they don't get done the "press" want answers. They are as useful as fluffy kitten in a fire.As all you students of WW2 already know "The Blitzkrieg Legend" by Karl-Heinz Frieser has a short section on a map exercise by a General André-Gaston Prételat over May-June 1938 which suggested that the Germans could rapidly penetrate the Ardennes. The conclusion reached by the leaders of the French Army was that this result should be kept secret so that the troops would not be worried The Blitzkrieg Legend.
I remembered this whilst reading an article in the Telegraph about Exercise Cygnus from 2016 Exercise Cygnus uncovered: the pandemic warnings buried by the government which modelled Britain's response to a pandemic and revealed serious failings. The article includes "...the report detailing the findings of Exercise Cygnus have never seen the light of day. A senior former government source with direct involvement in the exercise said they were deemed "too terrifying" to be revealed. Others involved cited "national security" concerns."
Read several reports that have stated that the director of Wuhan Central Hospital has gone missing after his public statements regarding how the government was not taking the situation seriously and a number of journalists and doctors who were trying to put out actual numbers have also turned up missing.Read an article this morning on line from researchers in Wuhan. As I understand it, the Chinese government states that only 2500 people died in this area as a result from the virus and that there are no more new cases. However, that being published, these researchers checked the number of cremation urns being returned to families. There are three crematoriums in this area and they are running 24/7 with an estimated 500 a day from each one. It was reported that they had to bring in other operators from outside to handle the workload. It is currently estimated that there are approximately 42,000 urns that will be returned to families by the first week of April. Something to think about.
And God help them when they are discovered.Based on sources from inside China that the government isn't aware of...yet.
I'm sure we could name another political leader who just wishes he could do the same....And God help them when they are discovered.
RIP the valiant, who love the truth more than life.
Communism will ever be your accuser, and will ever be your slayer. </political>
Rouhani? Perhaps Xi? Perhaps Corbyn?I'm sure we could name another political leader who just wishes he could do the same....