Coronavirus Thread (2 Viewers)

[TheMadPenguin]

See how that works? Now it a person's Dr. tells them to take it at a specific dosage, said person should do so. Not when Joe Smith on Aviation Forum says to.

What do you mean? That I should NOT have passed the link to read what is said by Dr.s? I haven't said to anybody to take anything. Let's please take a deep breath, that's as far as I go in ministering to peoples' symptoms.

 

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

What do you mean? That I should NOT have passed the link to read what is said by Dr.s? I haven't said to anybody to take anything. Let's please take a deep breath, that's as far as I go in ministering to peoples' symptoms.

No, sorry, my post was quoting yours, but not directed at you. I should have been more specific.

It was a general statement related to a conversation that was part of this thread earlier.

 

[TheMadPenguin]

No, sorry, my post was quoting yours, but not directed at you. I should have been more specific.

It was a general statement related to a conversation that was part of this thread earlier.

Gotchya. Thanks. Any news from Dr. Gnomey since Yesterday?

 

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

Gotchya. Thanks. Any news from Dr. Gnomey since Yesterday?

Haven't heard from him.

 

[Vincenzo]

Italy report 5 p.m. (CEST) today
cases 101,739, new 4,050, deaths 11,591, new 812, recovered 14,620 new 1,590, tests 477,359, new 23,329* * one region, the same of yesterday, reported less total tests of saturday (-2,001)
fatality rate 11.4%
mortality rate 192 per million
test rate 7.9 per thousand

 

[rochie]

On BBC this morning.

Doctor "we dont have enough ppe, all we have are face masks, disposable aprons and gloves, this is not acceptable protection"

5 minutes later.

Another Doctor "we have enough ppe, all we really need are face masks, disposable aprons and gloves to protect us"

 

[Gnomey]

Informative, very short, Youtube video from a UK doctor. He talks through some of the early statistics recently released by both the UK and EU healthcare authorities. The Video was posted on 30th March.

This video nicely summarises why we are worried. This coronavirus causes such a profound hypoxia (lack of oxygen) that the only way to manage severe cases is mechanical ventilation and the estimates are around 5-10% of cases will need it. Of these on average 50% will die. Now that's around 2.5-5% of currently ~800,000 cases which is 20-40,000 people so far have died (which roughly correlates with stated figures by all the countries). Now bear in mind there's probably double if not more actual cases around given lack of testing and many more who've died with undiagnosed disease so the numbers are likely higher for both.

Now the severe cases are difficult to predict but are likely male and over 50 (not everyone but likely most people here) however it can happen to anyone no matter their age it is indiscriminate in this regard. Age isn't really a factor as severe disease can happen to anyone. Yes it's more likely if you are older but not exclusive to them like the flu generally is. There is far less need for ventilation in flu vs COVID and that's the issue. We do not have enough ventilators to manage if the expected numbers are seen hence the rush for them. We are already delaying ITU for a lot patients to maximise the resource as much as possible. If you have bad underlying lung function and other co-morbidities it will be managed as best we can in a ward/HDU setting as outcomes from ITU is this group are very poor (a similar decision would be made in severe flu cases in this group as well so this is nothing new). We have to make these choices all the time, we don't like doing it but experience helps. ITU aims to get back to normal function with mechanical aids if this is unlikely despite all that ITU can offer them then they won't go in the first place and will he kept comfortable.

Take the UK as a whole, we have around 4000 ITU beds which can ventilate normally for a population of 70 million. Work out 10% of 70 million and you see the problem. The measures are to attempt to be able maximise the ITU resource which is imperative to maximise survival rates even the numbers are still going to be large and shocking for modern society.

Except all the medical experts disagree with you. They repeatedly are saying this is nothing like the flu. They are saying it spreads easier, that since it is a novel virus we have no resistance to it (unlike the flu), and that the fatality rate is higher than flu.

People like Dr. Fauci (I get it, he is the big bad man now because he doesn't bow down to others and repeat what they are supposed to say like a good lil minion), have stated that up 200,000 Americans will die from the virus this year if we do start taking this serious.

Fauci: Coronavirus could hit millions; Trump considers guidelines

Look I get it. I too thought this was nothing but another flu type event. The panic and the hoarding need to stop. People simply need to stay home and stop being vectors for the virus. Nut just because whatever flavor of news media you enjoy, or whatever flavor or leadership you care for disagrees with it for whatever reason that may be, its not the flu, and it needs to be taken serious.

Our medical professionals out there are telling us they are about to break. Why is it so hard to believe them? Once they break, death rates will rise because the people cannot be helped because the resources are not there. Gnomey is that an inaccurate thing to say?

This is reasonable.

AIUI anybody who gets the flu didn't have immunity to that strain.
YES I think the Chinese Coronavirus AND "COVID-19" are overhyped, possibly for political ambitions; nevertheless this plague worries me on a few points:
1: Novelty: Influenza is all over the world. People talk about "flu season", but "flu season" in the world is like "Vodka Season" in Russia. (starts 1/1, runs to end of year). COVID-19 started in ONE point, and is world-wide now. In the next years, when Chinese Coronavirus (CCV) is not novel, it'll start in multiple places like Flu does, with slightly different strains here vs there. There will be vaccines for both, they will have varying effectiveness. This is a bit scary in its own right.
2: Communicability: CCV is much more efficient at propagating to new hosts than Influenza is. R-Nought for flu is like 1.3, for CCV is like 3. The effect of this is that in the time it takes influenza to go from 1 person to 14, CCV goes from 1 to 59,000. In the coming years, when there are multiple strains of CCV erupting from multiple locations, this could be quite damaging to nations and economies.
3: Lethality: Influenza appears to be lethal in .1% of cases, CCV appears to be lethal in 3% of cases averaged out. We don't really know this because China lies about its case load, Italy has some unusual characteristics (advanced age of society, greater incidence of underlying lung problems from smoking, intense import of infections from China to textile industries in Lombard region, etc), and the disease is too damned new to really boil the lethality down as we have with Influenza.
4: Virulence: the 1918-1920 Influenza plague could kill in a few hours. Modern Influenza kills (generally) in a few days. CCV kills rapidly, but it is too new to be certain if it is a few hours, a few handfuls of hours, or a few days. Current impression: if it kills it does so quickly, in hours.
5: Repeatability (I got it once but I'll get it again): Too little is known here for me to guess. Influenza mutates so rapidly that if you get this year's version, you'll be immune next year just from having it this year. However, next year will bring you at least one "new" strain you're not immune to. With CCV, it's too new to tell.
6: Side effects: Permanent lung damage? More susceptible in the future? Dunno.

I don't want to hype for panic's sake, but the enemy is deadly, and we don't have much to use against it.

Gnomey, please correct my Layman's Misunderstandings if you would please.

This is essentially what I posted in the sticky thread in announcements. It's covers why we are worried by it as I've further detailed above.

 

[N4521U]

Coronavirus (COVID-19) current situation and case numbers

I read a post "we should get our shit together here in Oz"!
I think we are doing pretty well, considering that Feckin cruise ship let 200 people off roaming the streets of Sydney!!!
Went in to the biggest hdwre store, Bunnings, they had marked the Entrance and Exit with arrows and tape to keep a narrow passage one way each way. So I did the right thing. Exiting a Bunnings Exec entered the Exit right thru to the "Unavailable" elevator. Gonna call them today and unload shit onnem!!!!

 

[mikewint]

US coronavirus: Doctor says, ''We are slowly descending into chaos' - CNN

CNN)The latest projections on coronavirus in the US were so alarming, there was virtually no choice but to extend social distancing guidelines, two of the nation's top infectious disease experts said.
Federal guidelines originally scheduled to end this week have now been extended to April 30.
That means all Americans should avoid groups of 10 or more people, avoid discretionary travel, and consider canceling all social visits in homes. Older residents should stay home.
But even with continued social distancing, "I wouldn't be surprised if we saw 100,000 deaths," said Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.
"It was patently obvious, looking at the data ... if we try to push back (on social distancing) prematurely, not only do we lose lives, but it probably would even hurt the economy," he sai

 

[Vincenzo]

Social distancing effective is no group, you can only group with that living in your home,

 

[cherry blossom]

As all you students of WW2 already know "The Blitzkrieg Legend" by Karl-Heinz Frieser has a short section on a map exercise by a General André-Gaston Prételat over May-June 1938 which suggested that the Germans could rapidly penetrate the Ardennes. The conclusion reached by the leaders of the French Army was that this result should be kept secret so that the troops would not be worried The Blitzkrieg Legend.

I remembered this whilst reading an article in the Telegraph about Exercise Cygnus from 2016 Exercise Cygnus uncovered: the pandemic warnings buried by the government which modelled Britain's response to a pandemic and revealed serious failings. The article includes "...the report detailing the findings of Exercise Cygnus have never seen the light of day. A senior former government source with direct involvement in the exercise said they were deemed "too terrifying" to be revealed. Others involved cited "national security" concerns."

 

[pbehn]

Social distancing effective is no group, you can only group with that living in your home,

This has just been expressed in mathematics by the CSO in UK. To reduce the number of infected people the only way is to ensure each infected person infects less than one other. The only way to do this is to reduce "social" contact of the mass of the population to almost zero because there are some like health workers, police and many in required jobs who cant avoid coming into contact with others.

 

[Night Fighter Nut]

Read an article this morning on line from researchers in Wuhan. As I understand it, the Chinese government states that only 2500 people died in this area as a result from the virus and that there are no more new cases. However, that being published, these researchers checked the number of cremation urns being returned to families. There are three crematoriums in this area and they are running 24/7 with an estimated 500 a day from each one. It was reported that they had to bring in other operators from outside to handle the workload. It is currently estimated that there are approximately 42,000 urns that will be returned to families by the first week of April. Something to think about.

 

[swampyankee]

Well, it's certainly not impossible that the Chinese authorities are lying. Gee, authoritarian regimes (and wannabes) lying. Such a surprise.

 

[TheMadPenguin]

Researchers checked the number of cremation urns being returned to families.

Subtract the number of urns "filled and given to families" the same month last year (3 numbers for Jan, Feb, & March) for the city Wuhan, the province Hubei, and China, and you might have a good indicator to Wuhan/Hubei/China COVID-19 deaths.

 

[pbehn]

As all you students of WW2 already know "The Blitzkrieg Legend" by Karl-Heinz Frieser has a short section on a map exercise by a General André-Gaston Prételat over May-June 1938 which suggested that the Germans could rapidly penetrate the Ardennes. The conclusion reached by the leaders of the French Army was that this result should be kept secret so that the troops would not be worried The Blitzkrieg Legend.

I remembered this whilst reading an article in the Telegraph about Exercise Cygnus from 2016 Exercise Cygnus uncovered: the pandemic warnings buried by the government which modelled Britain's response to a pandemic and revealed serious failings. The article includes "...the report detailing the findings of Exercise Cygnus have never seen the light of day. A senior former government source with direct involvement in the exercise said they were deemed "too terrifying" to be revealed. Others involved cited "national security" concerns."

It is perfectly understandable that such things have been kept secret. Today I had a member of the press that has reported that CV-19 tests are between 30 and 60% accurate AND has been told that an inaccurate test is more dangerous than no test DEMANDING to know when we will do "more tests" they don't say what tests and on whom they just want 60 million tests a day and if they don't get done the "press" want answers. They are as useful as fluffy kitten in a fire.

 

[GrauGeist]

Read an article this morning on line from researchers in Wuhan. As I understand it, the Chinese government states that only 2500 people died in this area as a result from the virus and that there are no more new cases. However, that being published, these researchers checked the number of cremation urns being returned to families. There are three crematoriums in this area and they are running 24/7 with an estimated 500 a day from each one. It was reported that they had to bring in other operators from outside to handle the workload. It is currently estimated that there are approximately 42,000 urns that will be returned to families by the first week of April. Something to think about.

Read several reports that have stated that the director of Wuhan Central Hospital has gone missing after his public statements regarding how the government was not taking the situation seriously and a number of journalists and doctors who were trying to put out actual numbers have also turned up missing.
Radio Free Asia has suggested that the death toll in China is roughly 20 times higher than the Government is admitting, based on sources from inside China that the government isn't aware of...yet.

 

[TheMadPenguin]

Based on sources from inside China that the government isn't aware of...yet.

And God help them when they are discovered.
RIP the valiant, who love the truth more than life.
Communism will ever be your accuser, and will ever be your slayer. </political>

 

[gumbyk]

And God help them when they are discovered.
RIP the valiant, who love the truth more than life.
Communism will ever be your accuser, and will ever be your slayer. </political>

I'm sure we could name another political leader who just wishes he could do the same....

 

[jetcal1]

I'm sure we could name another political leader who just wishes he could do the same....

Rouhani? Perhaps Xi? Perhaps Corbyn?