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Also, the percentages (if one compares ALL years, not cherrypick late war stats) shows there was a clear and unmistakable upswing in Luftwaffe aerial victories through 1944.
Total Losses
Month Sorties to E/A Pct.
----------------------------------
Aug 1942 324 8 2.47%
Sep 1942 423 2 0.47%
Oct 1942 534 9 1.69%
Nov 1942 629 13 2.07%
Dec 1942 543 17 3.13%
--------------------------------
Jan 1943 767 21 2.74%
Feb 1943 976 22 2.25%
Mar 1943 1,564 19 1.21%
Apr 1943 989 33 3.34%
May 1943 3,915 58 1.48%
Jun 1943 4,104 86 2.10%
Jul 1943 5,531 94 1.70%
Aug 1943 5,826 100 1.72%
Sep 1943 9,294 60 0.65%
Oct 1943 7,463 152 2.04%
Nov 1943 9,624 109 1.13%
Dec 1943 13,876 123 0.89%
--------------------------------
Jan 1944 15,183 197 1.30%
Feb 1944 24,425 243 0.99%
Mar 1944 31,950 234 0.73%
Apr 1944 43,434 516 1.19%
May 1944 67,979 397 0.58%
Jun 1944 96,096 284 0.30%
Jul 1944 74,878 150 0.20%
Aug 1944 77,976 163 0.21%
Sep 1944 57,384 241 0.42%
Oct 1944 52,596 135 0.26%
Nov 1944 52,299 131 0.25%
Dec 1944 61,089 211 0.35%
--------------------------------
Jan 1945 47,577 121 0.25%
Feb 1945 68,365 56 0.08%
Mar 1945 111,472 144 0.13%
Apr 1945 79,402 119 0.15%
My numbers were table number calculated in Excel, too. So, we're using the same numbers, except you're using the losses in the ETO only.
ETO MTO Total
--------------------- -------------------- ---------------------
Month Sorties E/A Pct. Sorties E/A Pct. Sorties E/A Pct.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jun 1942 - - - 70 5 7.14% 70 5 7.14%
Jul 1942 - - - 166 3 1.81% 166 3 1.81%
Aug 1942 324 8 2.47% 255 6 2.35% 579 14 2.42%
Sep 1942 423 2 0.47% 576 6 1.04% 999 8 0.80%
Oct 1942 534 9 1.69% 1,519 6 0.39% 2,053 15 0.73%
Nov 1942 629 13 2.07% 2,544 11 0.43% 3,173 24 0.76%
Dec 1942 543 17 3.13% 2,166 32 1.48% 2,709 49 1.81%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jan 1943 767 21 2.74% 4,330 100 2.31% 5,097 121 2.37%
Feb 1943 976 22 2.25% 3,362 60 1.78% 4,338 82 1.89%
Mar 1943 1,564 19 1.21% 6,478 65 1.00% 8,042 84 1.04%
Apr 1943 989 33 3.34% 12,963 144 1.11% 13,952 177 1.27%
May 1943 3,915 58 1.48% 12,724 119 0.94% 16,639 177 1.06%
Jun 1943 4,104 86 2.10% 13,248 84 0.63% 17,352 170 0.98%
Jul 1943 5,531 94 1.70% 24,370 177 0.73% 29,901 271 0.91%
Aug 1943 5,826 100 1.72% 21,532 181 0.84% 27,358 281 1.03%
Sep 1943 9,294 60 0.65% 20,659 103 0.50% 29,953 163 0.54%
Oct 1943 7,463 152 2.04% 14,124 86 0.61% 21,587 238 1.10%
Nov 1943 9,624 109 1.13% 15,856 52 0.33% 25,480 161 0.63%
Dec 1943 13,876 123 0.89% 19,948 93 0.47% 33,824 216 0.64%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jan 1944 15,183 197 1.30% 28,992 118 0.41% 44,175 315 0.71%
Feb 1944 24,425 243 0.99% 20,568 175 0.85% 44,993 418 0.93%
Mar 1944 31,950 234 0.73% 24,798 88 0.35% 56,748 322 0.57%
Apr 1944 43,434 516 1.19% 30,645 153 0.50% 74,079 669 0.90%
May 1944 67,979 397 0.58% 42,539 102 0.24% 110,518 499 0.45%
Jun 1944 96,096 284 0.30% 33,947 161 0.47% 130,043 445 0.34%
Jul 1944 74,878 150 0.20% 33,987 141 0.41% 108,865 291 0.27%
Aug 1944 77,976 163 0.21% 37,968 133 0.35% 115,944 296 0.26%
Sep 1944 57,384 241 0.42% 26,359 33 0.13% 83,743 274 0.33%
Oct 1944 52,596 135 0.26% 22,607 6 0.03% 75,203 141 0.19%
Nov 1944 52,299 131 0.25% 26,055 23 0.09% 78,354 154 0.20%
Dec 1944 61,089 211 0.35% 28,347 28 0.10% 89,436 239 0.27%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jan 1945 47,577 121 0.25% 16,914 2 0.01% 64,491 123 0.19%
Feb 1945 68,365 56 0.08% 31,348 4 0.01% 99,713 60 0.06%
Mar 1945 111,472 144 0.13% 35,408 21 0.06% 146,880 165 0.11%
Apr 1945 79,402 119 0.15% 41,495 7 0.02% 120,897 126 0.10%
First, I get told to not look at losses, but rather losses to enemy planes.
I did and it doesn't track your claim.
Then not to look at losses, but to losses per sortie.
Turn that argument around and we understand each other. If the Luftwaffe was getting worse by the month, then it surely SHOULD be getting worse by the year.
But the loss numbers per combat sorties don;t support that.
And I'll drill the point home further that post hoc ergo propter hoc -- while ignoring other factors -- will necessarily skew any conclusion you wish to derive. The swing in airpower in 1944 happened for several different reasons: fuel supplies, which affected LW training; 8th AF fighter doctrine which became more aggressive; the longer-ranged P-51s giving the LW less freischutz and less safe bases; and so on.
And I'll drill the point home further that post hoc ergo propter hoc -- while ignoring other factors -- will necessarily skew any conclusion you wish to derive. The swing in airpower in 1944 happened for several different reasons: fuel supplies, which affected LW training; 8th AF fighter doctrine which became more aggressive; the longer-ranged P-51s giving the LW less freischutz and less safe bases; and so on.
Ignoring the numbers also skews conclusions.And I'll drill the point home further that post hoc ergo propter hoc -- while ignoring other factors -- will necessarily skew any conclusion you wish to derive. The swing in airpower in 1944 happened for several different reasons: fuel supplies, which affected LW training; 8th AF fighter doctrine which became more aggressive; the longer-ranged P-51s giving the LW less freischutz and less safe bases; and so on.
Month | All | HB | M&LB | Ftr | \\ | All | HB | M&LB | Ftr | \\ | All | HB | M&LB | Ftr | \\ | HB Vis % | HB dam % |
Apr-43 | 859 | 349 | 510 | \\ | 1 | 1 | \\ | 0.12 | 0.29 | n/a | 0.00 | \\ | 100 | 23.3 | |||
May-43 | 3,603 | 1,471 | 23 | 2,109 | \\ | 21 | 13 | 8 | \\ | 0.58 | 0.88 | 34.78 | 0.00 | \\ | 100 | 30.8 | |
Jun-43 | 3,147 | 1,268 | 1,879 | \\ | 12 | 12 | \\ | 0.38 | 0.95 | n/a | 0.00 | \\ | 100 | 32.7 | |||
Jul-43 | 4,292 | 1,743 | 416 | 2,133 | \\ | 30 | 29 | 1 | \\ | 0.70 | 1.66 | 0.24 | 0.00 | \\ | 100 | 43.9 | |
Aug-43 | 4,771 | 1,850 | 904 | 2,017 | \\ | 20 | 20 | \\ | 0.42 | 1.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | \\ | 100 | 42.2 | ||
Sep-43 | 7,252 | 2,457 | 1,808 | 2,987 | \\ | 27 | 25 | 2 | \\ | 0.37 | 1.02 | 0.11 | 0.00 | \\ | 89.46 | 29.2 | |
Oct-43 | 5,526 | 2,117 | 521 | 2,888 | \\ | 38 | 38 | \\ | 0.69 | 1.79 | 0.00 | 0.00 | \\ | 76.62 | 41.7 | ||
Nov-43 | 6,884 | 2,581 | 867 | 3,436 | \\ | 33 | 25 | 7 | 1 | \\ | 0.48 | 0.97 | 0.81 | 0.03 | \\ | 40.61 | 22.2 |
Dec-43 | 11,032 | 4,937 | 994 | 5,101 | \\ | 70 | 65 | 5 | \\ | 0.63 | 1.32 | 0.50 | 0.00 | \\ | 45.43 | 22.7 | |
Jan-44 | 12,541 | 5,027 | 1,050 | 6,464 | \\ | 35 | 27 | 2 | 6 | \\ | 0.28 | 0.54 | 0.19 | 0.09 | \\ | 42.75 | 20.5 |
Feb-44 | 19,588 | 7,512 | 2,373 | 9,703 | \\ | 108 | 81 | 14 | 13 | \\ | 0.55 | 1.08 | 0.59 | 0.13 | \\ | 59.37 | 25.4 |
Mar-44 | 26,411 | 8,773 | 3,025 | 14,613 | \\ | 167 | 112 | 9 | 46 | \\ | 0.63 | 1.28 | 0.30 | 0.31 | \\ | 48.25 | 27.1 |
Apr-44 | 34,493 | 9,945 | 5,332 | 19,216 | \\ | 190 | 105 | 25 | 60 | \\ | 0.55 | 1.06 | 0.47 | 0.31 | \\ | 81.68 | 31.4 |
May-44 | 55,358 | 13,975 | 8,523 | 32,860 | \\ | 248 | 122 | 28 | 98 | \\ | 0.45 | 0.87 | 0.33 | 0.30 | \\ | 69.5 | 22.8 |
Jun-44 | 82,369 | 22,713 | 8,908 | 50,748 | \\ | 400 | 162 | 12 | 226 | \\ | 0.49 | 0.71 | 0.13 | 0.45 | \\ | 60.21 | 17.6 |
Jul-44 | 64,626 | 18,864 | 5,839 | 39,923 | \\ | 377 | 201 | 23 | 153 | \\ | 0.58 | 1.07 | 0.39 | 0.38 | \\ | 55.92 | 18.2 |
Aug-44 | 67,961 | 18,964 | 6,588 | 42,409 | \\ | 607 | 238 | 75 | 294 | \\ | 0.89 | 1.26 | 1.14 | 0.69 | \\ | 89.55 | 20.8 |
Sep-44 | 49,393 | 15,617 | 3,379 | 30,397 | \\ | 422 | 207 | 25 | 190 | \\ | 0.85 | 1.33 | 0.74 | 0.63 | \\ | 36.58 | 24.6 |
Oct-44 | 45,990 | 17,058 | 1,800 | 27,132 | \\ | 334 | 112 | 24 | 198 | \\ | 0.73 | 0.66 | 1.33 | 0.73 | \\ | 22.94 | 20.0 |
Nov-44 | 46,360 | 15,245 | 3,244 | 27,871 | \\ | 328 | 146 | 18 | 164 | \\ | 0.71 | 0.96 | 0.55 | 0.59 | \\ | 12.85 | 22.5 |
Dec-44 | 54,547 | 16,424 | 4,881 | 33,242 | \\ | 285 | 74 | 48 | 163 | \\ | 0.52 | 0.45 | 0.98 | 0.49 | \\ | 35.56 | 12.7 |
Jan-45 | 42,309 | 14,750 | 2,998 | 24,561 | \\ | 412 | 222 | 28 | 162 | \\ | 0.97 | 1.51 | 0.93 | 0.66 | \\ | 32.76 | 19.5 |
Feb-45 | 62,350 | 19,933 | 7,902 | 34,515 | \\ | 433 | 157 | 68 | 208 | \\ | 0.69 | 0.79 | 0.86 | 0.60 | \\ | 24.42 | 15.8 |
Mar-45 | 104,795 | 28,804 | 15,792 | 60,199 | \\ | 460 | 164 | 52 | 244 | \\ | 0.44 | 0.57 | 0.33 | 0.41 | \\ | 42.46 | 17.4 |
Apr-45 | 72,842 | 18,180 | 9,209 | 45,453 | \\ | 302 | 77 | 18 | 207 | \\ | 0.41 | 0.42 | 0.20 | 0.46 | \\ | 77.76 | 9.5 |
May-45 | 4,978 | 2,254 | 167 | 2,557 | \\ | 20 | 4 | 16 | \\ | 0.40 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.63 | \\ | |||
1943 | 47,366 | 18,773 | 5,533 | 23,060 | \\ | 252 | 228 | 23 | 1 | \\ | 0.53 | 1.21 | 0.42 | 0.00 | \\ | 72.37 | |
1944 | 559,637 | 170,117 | 54,942 | 334,578 | \\ | 3,501 | 1,587 | 303 | 1,611 | \\ | 0.63 | 0.93 | 0.55 | 0.48 | \\ | 51.37 | 21.1 |
1945 | 287,274 | 83,921 | 36,068 | 167,285 | \\ | 1,627 | 624 | 166 | 837 | \\ | 0.57 | 0.74 | 0.46 | 0.50 | \\ | 43.01 | 15.6 |
Total | 894,277 | 272,811 | 96,543 | 524,923 | \\ | 5,380 | 2,439 | 492 | 2,449 | \\ | 0.60 | 0.89 | 0.51 | 0.47 | \\ | 50.49 |
Ignoring the numbers also skews conclusions.
OK, I ran the table again and they are shown below. I used Table 118 (Combat Sorties Flown by Theater) for sorties and Table 158 (Airplane Losses on Combat Missions) for losses. Because you were talking about losses in the ETO, I used the Total, ETO, and MTO columns from Theaters versus Germany.
I note that the ETO numbers behave somewhat as you said, but do NOT support the Luftwaffe failing apart from 1941 onward.
Using the Total column, I would start in Nov 1942. So, Nov-Dec 1942: .0164; 1943: .0149; 1944: .0117; Jan 1945: .0129. Yes, the numbers decline, but not by much and certainly not precipitously. They even slightly increase in Jan 1945. But they DO generally slightly decline. Certainly not a cannon fodder decline, but a decline nonetheless.
Recall the flak crews were also in the Luftwaffe, so their effect collects with the Luftwaffe's efforts, too, and generally follows the same trend of maintaining effectiveness up until near the end.
Note late 1944 through Mar 1945 look as good or better than 1943, yet the Luftwaffe was supposed to be decimated by 1945.
Again, the data doesn't support the contention the Luftwaffe was decimated, at all.
The data are fairly clear. What are you trying to show that I did not say already ... in plain English?
His graph is about USAAF losses to fighters alone. Lumping flak kills into that is not clarifying anything for the discussion. He's already separated that out, so far as I can read it.
And the chart above shows exactly what I have been saying all along. The Luftwaffe, moreso in the ETO as it turns out, didn't "decline" much until April 1945 with the exception of Feb 1945.