TheMadPenguin
Senior Airman
Layer on top of that the expected "death by old age" age.
Coronavirus Thread
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Deleted member 68059
Staff Sergeant
- 1,058
- Dec 28, 2015
Layer on top of that the dramatically smaller population in early years, and hence vastly higher impact. Also note that total deaths have exceeded those of "covid year" twice in very recent times which are completely unaffected by changes in life expectancy.
Also layer on top the 2.4 MILLION people in Britain who didnt get cancer screenings due to the lockdown measures. We will be experiencing the fallout from that for the next decade, Sweden - will not. None of this my is my conjecture, simply reporting the UK news. It should be noted if you are unfamiliar with UK data that the ITV news figure of 60,000 extra cancer deaths exceeds the entire UK total for "with covid" deaths (43,000 as of 14th Oct) - (which also includes ANY person tested covid+ within 28 days of death by UK method of recording it - I do not know how this is done elsewhere).
2.4 MILLION patients are caught in coronavirus cancer backlog | Daily Mail Online
Extra cancer victims may reach 35,000 after screening and treatment missed | News | The Times
'60,000 cancer patients may die': Oncologist on the coronavirus dilemma | ITV News
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My friend in Berlin got COVID from a patient of hers and had to stay in quarantine at her house - her husband and child had to move away for two weeks while she recovered. She's okay now though, which is a relief. They had that large protest through the Tiergarten by idiots refusing to remain in lockdown a month or so ago - feckin morons.
ThomasP
Senior Master Sergeant
Hey guys,
I am going to saddle up and reiterate some things that have already been posted here (mainly just to refocus) and add a couple of things.
The idea behind the various preventive measures that have been implemented by the various nations and localities have been/are oriented to accomplish two primary objectives:
1. Slow the spread of the disease to prevent overloading the Hospitals and supportive and long term care systems.
2. Slow the spread of the disease in order to buy time to develop a vaccine.
Although it can be argued just how effective the measures have been - there is no rational argument (as far as I have observed personally or have been informed of by people who know a lot more about this than I) that the measures taken have not slowed down the spread in all of said countries.
If we (ie the US and many other nations represented by members of this forum) have accomplished the two above objectives effectively, the number of serious illnesses and deaths have been diminished significantly, to this point in time. What the near term and long term futures will bring remains to be seen.
I was invited to sit in at a meeting (effectively a briefing) the other day at one of the local hospitals I routinely visit while doing my courier job. During said meeting the projections created by the models that are currently being used - here in Minnesota and many other state and federal agencies and/or have been used to predict the spread and effects of COVID-19 - were discussed, in order to allow informed decision making by the responsible medical professionals. There was a very interesting recap of what has been accomplished to date, what remains to be accomplished, what is effectively being done to what purpose, etc.
One of the particular bits of info that I think is worth adding at this point is that, when restarted from the first cases that appeared in the US - [if we had not taken the precautions we did] and with the information we have now - ALL of the models say that we (ie the US) would currently be at somewhere around 750,000 deaths, with more than 1,000,000 by the end of the year. The only time the models do not allow for this level of fatalities is when a particular random factor is added in, ie that the effects become so terrifying that people begin to hide in their homes and not go out unless necessary for food and such. Although the models for rate of spread do not cover other resulting effects for such an occurrence, there are historical precedents for such an event, and the Minnesota departments responsible for crisis management (along with other state and federal agencies) have studied/are studying the matter. Most of you know enough history that you can realize the possible effects on societal morals and the economy, ie social-economic collapse. The conclusion so far, by ALL of the agencies, is that the potential of such an occurrence must not be allowed, as even the lowest level adverse effects predicted would be far worse than any of the effects so far encountered.
Obviously, these are only the conclusions drawn by agencies in the US and may not apply in some measure to other nations or sub-communities.
[edit to add words in bracket]
I am going to saddle up and reiterate some things that have already been posted here (mainly just to refocus) and add a couple of things.
The idea behind the various preventive measures that have been implemented by the various nations and localities have been/are oriented to accomplish two primary objectives:
1. Slow the spread of the disease to prevent overloading the Hospitals and supportive and long term care systems.
2. Slow the spread of the disease in order to buy time to develop a vaccine.
Although it can be argued just how effective the measures have been - there is no rational argument (as far as I have observed personally or have been informed of by people who know a lot more about this than I) that the measures taken have not slowed down the spread in all of said countries.
If we (ie the US and many other nations represented by members of this forum) have accomplished the two above objectives effectively, the number of serious illnesses and deaths have been diminished significantly, to this point in time. What the near term and long term futures will bring remains to be seen.
I was invited to sit in at a meeting (effectively a briefing) the other day at one of the local hospitals I routinely visit while doing my courier job. During said meeting the projections created by the models that are currently being used - here in Minnesota and many other state and federal agencies and/or have been used to predict the spread and effects of COVID-19 - were discussed, in order to allow informed decision making by the responsible medical professionals. There was a very interesting recap of what has been accomplished to date, what remains to be accomplished, what is effectively being done to what purpose, etc.
One of the particular bits of info that I think is worth adding at this point is that, when restarted from the first cases that appeared in the US - [if we had not taken the precautions we did] and with the information we have now - ALL of the models say that we (ie the US) would currently be at somewhere around 750,000 deaths, with more than 1,000,000 by the end of the year. The only time the models do not allow for this level of fatalities is when a particular random factor is added in, ie that the effects become so terrifying that people begin to hide in their homes and not go out unless necessary for food and such. Although the models for rate of spread do not cover other resulting effects for such an occurrence, there are historical precedents for such an event, and the Minnesota departments responsible for crisis management (along with other state and federal agencies) have studied/are studying the matter. Most of you know enough history that you can realize the possible effects on societal morals and the economy, ie social-economic collapse. The conclusion so far, by ALL of the agencies, is that the potential of such an occurrence must not be allowed, as even the lowest level adverse effects predicted would be far worse than any of the effects so far encountered.
Obviously, these are only the conclusions drawn by agencies in the US and may not apply in some measure to other nations or sub-communities.
[edit to add words in bracket]
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You are going the same way as we are.
Another freaking cartoon 
I think have a mentioned the swiss cheese model a few times in this discussion.
Yeah, I am a former aviation safety guy...
Some people don't understand words...Another freaking cartoon
ThomasP
Senior Master Sergeant
re:"I think have a mentioned the swiss cheese model a few times in this discussion."
Yes, but gumbyk's has superior graphics and labels.
Yes, but gumbyk's has superior graphics and labels.
at6
1st Sergeant
And you can make a sandwich with it. Yum.
Crimea_River
Marshal
Good reason to wear 2 masks:
CDC data for age groups. Underlying health issues (respiratory predominating) is the second greatest risk factor after age.
COVID-19 Provisional Counts - Weekly Updates by Select Demographic and Geographic Characteristics
COVID-19 Provisional Counts - Weekly Updates by Select Demographic and Geographic Characteristics
Michigan has found a new way to drive up the numbers. On the state's website they have a new stat - cases per million for each county. Let's take Luce County as an example. Luce County has a total population of 6,631 and has had 28 confirmed cases, but their cases per million according to the state government's website is 4,223. How is it possible to have a cases per million total greater that the total number of cases? This same phenomenon applies to every county in the state. Now I am sure there is no political agenda behind it, as our genius governor has repeatedly said her actions are based on science and data, but has never explained what science or data was behind any of her decisions.
buffnut453
Captain
The number of cases per million of the population is one of the standard measures being used to track the progress of the disease within countries. I do agree that it seems rather odd to apply it to such a small population: the small sample size of the local population means that even minor changes in the number of cases would result in dramatic swings in the "per million" statistic. However, from a standardization perspective, the use of a common measuring stick makes some sense.
MiTasol
1st Lieutenant
Another freaking cartoon
Based on the very scientific Swiss cheese model of accident prevention by James Reason. That "cartoon" has been the most essential tool in demonstrating safety management practices for over twenty years now.
so?
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MiTasol
1st Lieutenant
If you have to ask you may not understand but here goes
Every hole in each sheet of cheese represents a potential pathway towards an accident, or, in this case, infection.
Every time a potential accident or infection gets through a hole in your protective processes and is stopped by the absence of a hole in the next layer that represents an accident or infection that has been prevented.
The greater the number of layers (defenses) the lower the chance of accident/infection. As an example; moving your social distancing from 1.5m (Australia) to the US 1.8m or European 2m provides four times the level of protection so is effectively four layers.
If however there are a series of holes in your defenses that align with the potential for an accident/infection then such an accident/infection can, and inevitably will, occur.
For example consider masks, social distancing, surface hygiene, hand hygiene, not touching your face with your hands each as a single layer of cheese.
Now if an infected person is not wearing a mask and coughing all over surfaces that keep the virus active and other people are putting their hands on those surfaces and not cleaning their hands properly and rubbing their noses lips or eyes the holes in each cheese are in alignment and the infection will get through.
Every hole in each sheet of cheese represents a potential pathway towards an accident, or, in this case, infection.
Every time a potential accident or infection gets through a hole in your protective processes and is stopped by the absence of a hole in the next layer that represents an accident or infection that has been prevented.
The greater the number of layers (defenses) the lower the chance of accident/infection. As an example; moving your social distancing from 1.5m (Australia) to the US 1.8m or European 2m provides four times the level of protection so is effectively four layers.
If however there are a series of holes in your defenses that align with the potential for an accident/infection then such an accident/infection can, and inevitably will, occur.
For example consider masks, social distancing, surface hygiene, hand hygiene, not touching your face with your hands each as a single layer of cheese.
Now if an infected person is not wearing a mask and coughing all over surfaces that keep the virus active and other people are putting their hands on those surfaces and not cleaning their hands properly and rubbing their noses lips or eyes the holes in each cheese are in alignment and the infection will get through.
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